The Stable Genius Report

• People in each state could pocket money under Trump's 'big beautiful bill' savings.
• Families could see thousands in additional take-home pay from Trump's 'big, beautiful bill'.
• The 'big beautiful bill' will deliver the largest tax cut in history, higher wages, and higher take-home pay.
• A state-by-state breakdown of these savings is available.
• The information is presented as originating from 'The White House' under 'President Donald J. Trump'.

The post highlights proposed economic policy, specifically 'the largest tax cut in history' and 'higher wages, higher take-home pay' under Trump's 'big beautiful bill'. If such a policy were enacted, it would be highly significant for corporate profitability (via tax cuts) and consumer demand (via increased disposable income), directly impacting S&P 500 companies. This post serves to frame expectations around future economic policies.

The content focuses exclusively on domestic economic policy regarding tax cuts and savings, with no references to international relations, military actions, or geopolitical tensions.

• Commodities: Gold (XAU) might see initial weakness if the policy implies strong economic growth and higher real yields, but could rise if inflation expectations spike due to stimulus. Oil (WTI) could rise on increased demand from stronger economic activity. Short-Term Watchlist: XAU/USD price action, oil inventory reports, headlines on Iran/OPEC. Medium-Term Focus: Inflation trends, Fed policy, China industrial data, USD trajectory.
• Currencies (Forex): The US Dollar Index (DXY) would likely strengthen due to increased capital flows to the US on the expectation of higher growth and potentially higher interest rates. Watch pairs like USDJPY, EURUSD, and USDCNH. Short-Term Watchlist: Fed speakers, Treasury yields, global risk sentiment. Medium-Term Focus: Central bank divergence (Fed vs ECB/BoJ), global growth differentials, dollar liquidity cycles.
• Global Equities: S&P 500, Nasdaq, STOXX 600, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng could react positively to expectations of stronger US growth and corporate earnings, though global markets might see some capital reallocation towards the US. Short-Term Watchlist: Futures open, VIX spike/dip, FANG/semis/defense sectors. Medium-Term Focus: Earnings revisions, macro data (ISM, PMI), global capital flows, geopolitical overhangs.
• Fixed Income (Bonds): US 10Y and 2Y yields would likely rise due to expectations of higher growth, inflation, and potentially increased supply of government debt to fund tax cuts. There would be a reduced flight to safety. Credit spreads may widen if fiscal concerns intensify. Short-Term Watchlist: UST 10Y yield levels, TED spread, credit ETF flows (e.g., HYG). Medium-Term Focus: Fed dot plots, fiscal concerns, debt ceiling rhetoric, economic surprise indices.
• Volatility / Derivatives: The VIX might compress initially on positive growth expectations but could spike if the policy implies increased fiscal deficits or inflation uncertainty. Short-Term Watchlist: VIX levels vs VIX futures term structure, 0DTE flow, SKEW index. Medium-Term Focus: Volatility regime shifts, macro policy uncertainty, systemic tail risk (e.g., elections, war).
• Crypto / Digital Assets: Bitcoin (BTC) would likely behave as a risk-on asset, potentially rising with equity markets due to overall liquidity and risk appetite. Short-Term Watchlist: BTC/USD, Coinbase order book activity, funding rates, ETH correlation. Medium-Term Focus: Regulatory news, stablecoin flows, ETH upgrade progress, macro liquidity backdrop.
• Cross-Asset Correlations and Systemic Risk: Strong positive correlation between equities and bonds could emerge if growth is perceived as robust. Watch for breakdowns in normal correlations (e.g., equities and bonds selling off together), or signs of margin calls/liquidity stress. Short-Term Watchlist: MOVE index, junk bond ETFs, gold/USD co-movement. Medium-Term Focus: Shadow banking risk, central bank intervention, market plumbing stress.
• Retail Sentiment / Market Psychology: The message of 'money in each state' and 'thousands in additional take-home pay' is highly appealing to retail investors, potentially triggering increased engagement in the stock market or specific sectors perceived to benefit. Short-Term Watchlist: GME/AMC volume, Twitter/X trends, Reddit sentiment, TikTok mentions. Medium-Term Focus: Social media influence on market structure, potential for coordinated retail pushes, policy/regulatory crackdown on retail trading behavior.