The Stable Genius Report

• The speaker's absence would lead to six major wars
• The speaker's presence is currently preventing six major wars

The post's claim that six major wars would be underway without the speaker's presence suggests a world with significant geopolitical instability. Major wars would have substantial negative impacts on global supply chains, economic growth, and corporate earnings, directly affecting the S&P 500. The post implies that the speaker's role is crucial for averting such economically disruptive events, making global stability contingent on their involvement.

The post directly references 'six major wars' that would be ongoing in the speaker's absence, implying a high current level of global instability and a constant threat of significant international conflicts. This suggests a world on the brink of widespread war, which only the speaker's presence is averting.

• Commodities: Major wars would likely cause significant supply disruptions, boosting oil prices (WTI) due to geopolitical risk. Gold (XAU) would likely rise as a safe-haven asset due to fear and increased global instability. Short-Term Watchlist: XAU/USD price action, oil inventory reports, headlines on Iran/OPEC. Medium-Term Focus: Inflation trends, Fed policy, China industrial data, USD trajectory.
• Currencies (Forex): The US Dollar Index (DXY) would likely strengthen as a safe-haven currency amid global instability. Risk-off sentiment would push down riskier currencies. Short-Term Watchlist: Fed speakers, Treasury yields, global risk sentiment. Medium-Term Focus: Central bank divergence (Fed vs ECB/BoJ), global growth differentials, dollar liquidity cycles.
• Global Equities: A scenario of 'six major wars' would trigger a significant sell-off across global equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq, STOXX 600, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng) due to extreme risk aversion, economic uncertainty, and potential supply chain disruptions. Short-Term Watchlist: Futures open, VIX spike/dip, FANG/semis/defense sectors. Medium-Term Focus: Earnings revisions, macro data (ISM, PMI), global capital flows, geopolitical overhangs.
• Fixed Income (Bonds): US 10Y and 2Y yields would likely fall as investors flock to safe-haven US Treasuries. The yield curve might flatten or invert further. Credit spreads would widen significantly due to increased default risk. Short-Term Watchlist: UST 10Y yield levels, TED spread, credit ETF flows (e.g., HYG). Medium-Term Focus: Fed dot plots, fiscal concerns, debt ceiling rhetoric, economic surprise indices.
• Volatility / Derivatives: The VIX would spike dramatically due to extreme market uncertainty and fear. Options positioning would reflect increased hedging demand. Short-Term Watchlist: VIX levels vs VIX futures term structure, 0DTE flow, SKEW index. Medium-Term Focus: Volatility regime shifts, macro policy uncertainty, systemic tail risk (e.g., elections, war).
• Crypto / Digital Assets: Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies would likely behave as risk-on assets and initially fall sharply due to a broader deleveraging and liquidity crunch, similar to other speculative assets. Short-Term Watchlist: BTC/USD, Coinbase order book activity, funding rates, ETH correlation. Medium-Term Focus: Regulatory news, stablecoin flows, ETH upgrade progress, macro liquidity backdrop.
• Cross-Asset Correlations and Systemic Risk: Correlations would likely break down, with equities and bonds potentially selling off together if inflation fear combines with recession fear, or a flight to quality in bonds while equities collapse. Signs of margin calls and liquidity stress would emerge. Short-Term Watchlist: MOVE index, junk bond ETFs, gold/USD co-movement. Medium-Term Focus: Shadow banking risk, central bank intervention, market plumbing stress.
• Retail Sentiment / Market Psychology: The narrative of 'six major wars' would trigger extreme fear and panic among retail investors, potentially leading to sharp sell-offs or attempts to find safe havens. Short-Term Watchlist: GME/AMC volume, Twitter/X trends, Reddit sentiment, TikTok mentions. Medium-Term Focus: Social media influence on market structure, potential for coordinated retail pushes, policy/regulatory crackdown on retail trading behavior.