The Stable Genius Report

• July tariff revenues broke a monthly record
• 150 billion dollars in tariff revenue has been collected in 2025

The post reports substantial tariff revenues, indicating a significant trade policy that could influence corporate earnings, supply chains, and consumer spending, thereby affecting S&P 500 performance.

The post focuses on domestic economic indicators related to tariff collections and does not contain any direct references to international conflict, military actions, or diplomatic tensions that would escalate geopolitical risk.

• Commodities: Tariffs, especially at the scale implied, could lead to trade disputes, potentially dampening global growth prospects, which might result in a fall in industrial commodities like copper and oil if demand slows. Gold (XAU) might rise as a safe haven if trade tensions increase or if tariffs lead to inflation concerns. Short-Term Watchlist: XAU/USD price action, oil inventory reports, headlines on trade negotiations. Medium-Term Focus: Inflation trends, global trade volumes, USD trajectory.
• Currencies (Forex): The US Dollar Index (DXY) could strengthen if tariffs are seen as beneficial to the US balance of payments or if trade tensions create a flight to safety into USD. However, prolonged trade wars could also weaken global sentiment, impacting other currencies against the dollar. Short-Term Watchlist: Treasury yields, global risk sentiment, central bank rhetoric on trade. Medium-Term Focus: Global growth differentials, central bank policy divergence, dollar liquidity cycles.
• Global Equities: Tariffs directly impact companies involved in international trade. Import-reliant sectors might face higher costs, affecting earnings. Export-oriented companies could face retaliatory tariffs. This could lead to volatility and sector rotation in S&P 500, Nasdaq, and global indices (STOXX 600, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng). Short-Term Watchlist: Futures open, VIX spike/dip, trade-sensitive sectors (e.g., technology, manufacturing, retail). Medium-Term Focus: Earnings revisions, macro data (e.g., trade balance, manufacturing PMIs), global capital flows.
• Fixed Income (Bonds): If tariffs lead to inflation, US 10Y and 2Y yields could rise. If trade tensions increase risk aversion, there could be a flight to safety into US Treasuries, causing yields to fall. Credit spreads might widen if corporate profitability is squeezed by tariffs. Short-Term Watchlist: UST 10Y yield levels, credit ETF flows (e.g., HYG), inflation expectations. Medium-Term Focus: Fed policy expectations, fiscal concerns, economic surprise indices.
• Volatility / Derivatives: Trade policy uncertainty often leads to increased market volatility. The VIX would likely spike, reflecting higher perceived risk. Options positioning could amplify moves as participants hedge or speculate on tariff impacts. Short-Term Watchlist: VIX levels vs VIX futures term structure, implied volatility in equity options. Medium-Term Focus: Volatility regime shifts, macro policy uncertainty.
• Crypto / Digital Assets: Bitcoin (BTC) might behave as a risk-on asset, correlating with tech stocks, meaning it could decline if trade tensions create broader market uncertainty. Alternatively, if tariffs lead to inflation or currency debasement concerns, BTC could also be seen as a hedge. Its correlation to macro liquidity cycles remains key. Short-Term Watchlist: BTC/USD price action, funding rates, ETH correlation to broader tech. Medium-Term Focus: Regulatory news, stablecoin flows, macro liquidity backdrop.
• Cross-Asset Correlations and Systemic Risk: Significant tariff policies can strain global supply chains and lead to higher costs, potentially causing a breakdown in normal correlations (e.g., equities and bonds selling off together due to stagflation fears or growth concerns). Liquidity stress could emerge in specific sectors. Short-Term Watchlist: MOVE index, junk bond ETFs, gold/USD co-movement. Medium-Term Focus: Central bank intervention, market plumbing stress, global supply chain resilience.
• Retail Sentiment / Market Psychology: The news about substantial tariff revenues, combined with a positive framing from a prominent political figure, could influence retail investor sentiment, particularly those who support protectionist policies. It might encourage speculation in domestic-focused companies or sectors perceived to benefit from tariffs. Short-Term Watchlist: Twitter/X trends, Reddit sentiment on trade-related stocks, retail trading volumes in specific sectors. Medium-Term Focus: Social media influence on market structure, potential for coordinated retail pushes on 'tariff-proof' or 'tariff-beneficiary' stocks.