The Stable Genius Report

• A "MAGA Kentucky" advertising campaign has caused Thomas Massie's polling numbers to decline.
• Thomas Massie is now extremely vulnerable in a Republican primary election for Congress.
• Republican primary voters are rejecting Thomas Massie's record of standing with Democrats against President Trump's tax cuts and policies.
• Massie's favorable image rating has shifted from a net +14 to a net -11, a 25-point net negative swing.
• Massie's job approval rating has shifted from a net +11 to a net -16, a 27-point net negative shift.
• The perception of Massie's ideology becoming more liberal has increased from 13% to 27%, while his conservative rating decreased from 62% to 45%.
• Thomas Massie's re-elect score decreased from 41% in June to 30%.
• An incumbent with a re-elect score under 40% is considered vulnerable in a primary.
• A Republican candidate endorsed and backed by President Trump would be in a strong position to win.

The post focuses on a specific domestic political primary election and does not contain any policy proposals, economic forecasts, or company-specific mentions that would directly influence S&P 500 performance.

The post exclusively discusses domestic US primary election dynamics and candidate polling, with no references to international relations, foreign policy, or military actions.

• Commodities: No direct impact as the post concerns a local US election. No mentions of supply shocks, inflation, or specific commodities. Short-Term Watchlist: N/A. Medium-Term Focus: N/A.
• Currencies (Forex): No direct impact on DXY or other currency pairs as the post is a localized political poll. No central bank expectations or global risk appetite triggers. Short-Term Watchlist: N/A. Medium-Term Focus: N/A.
• Global Equities: No direct impact on global equity markets, including S&P 500, Nasdaq, or international indices. The post does not discuss sector rotation or contagion fears relevant to equity markets. Short-Term Watchlist: N/A. Medium-Term Focus: N/A.
• Fixed Income (Bonds): No direct impact on bond yields or credit spreads. The content is not related to fiscal policy, monetary policy, or broad economic indicators. Short-Term Watchlist: N/A. Medium-Term Focus: N/A.
• Volatility / Derivatives: No direct impact on volatility indices like VIX. The post is about a specific primary election poll, not broader market uncertainty or systemic risk. Short-Term Watchlist: N/A. Medium-Term Focus: N/A.
• Crypto / Digital Assets: No direct impact on crypto assets. The post does not discuss regulatory news, liquidity, or technology relevant to digital assets. Short-Term Watchlist: N/A. Medium-Term Focus: N/A.
• Cross-Asset Correlations and Systemic Risk: No indicators of systemic risk or breakdown in cross-asset correlations. The post is highly localized and political. Short-Term Watchlist: N/A. Medium-Term Focus: N/A.
• Retail Sentiment / Market Psychology: No direct trigger for retail speculation in financial markets. The post is a political poll, not related to specific companies, meme stocks, or market-moving events for retail traders. Short-Term Watchlist: N/A. Medium-Term Focus: N/A.