The Stable Genius Report

• Next week’s Case on Tariffs is one of the most important in the History of the Country.
• If a President is not allowed to use Tariffs, the country will be at a major disadvantage against all other Countries throughout the World.
• Without the ability to use tariffs, the country would be defenseless.
• Tariffs have brought Great Wealth and National Security during the author's nine months as President.
• The Stock Market has hit All Time Highs many times with virtually No Inflation and second-to-none National Security during the author's short time in Office.
• Successful negotiations with China and others were only possible because of tariffs.
• Inability to quickly and nimbly use the power of Tariffs could lead to the ruination of the Nation.
• The only people fighting the use of tariffs are Foreign Countries that have taken advantage of the U.S., those who hate the country, and the Democrats.
• The author will not attend the Court on Wednesday to avoid distracting from the decision's importance.
• The Supreme Court's decision will be one of the most important and consequential ever made.
• If the country wins the case, it will be the Richest, Most Secure Country anywhere in the World, BY FAR.
• If the country loses the case, it could be reduced to almost Third World status.

The post directly asserts that tariffs have brought 'Great Wealth' and led to the 'Stock Market hit All Time Highs' during the author's tenure. It projects that a favorable ruling on tariffs would make the U.S. the 'Richest, Most Secure Country,' while an unfavorable ruling could reduce the nation to 'almost Third World status.' This narrative strongly suggests a monumental impact on national prosperity and, consequently, the S&P 500.

The post claims that the inability to use tariffs would leave the nation 'defenseless' against other countries, specifically mentioning 'Majors' and 'Foreign Countries who for years have taken advantage of us.' It links tariffs directly to 'National Security' and successful international negotiations with entities like China, indicating that the outcome of the case significantly impacts the country's power and standing in the global arena, though the threat is framed as economic rather than direct military conflict.

• Commodities: If the U.S. were to become the 'Richest, Most Secure Country,' demand for industrial commodities like oil and copper could rise due to increased economic activity, while the 'Third World status' outcome would likely depress such demand. Gold (XAU) might see a flight to safety increase if the 'ruination' scenario creates fear and instability, potentially weakening the USD. Short-Term Watchlist: XAU/USD price action, oil inventory reports, headlines on trade policy enforcement. Medium-Term Focus: Inflation trends, Fed policy, global industrial data, USD trajectory.
• Currencies (Forex): A scenario where the U.S. achieves 'Richest, Most Secure' status would likely lead to a stronger US Dollar (DXY) due to increased confidence and capital inflows. Conversely, the 'Third World status' outcome would imply a severe weakening of the USD. The ability to use tariffs would also directly affect trade balances and currency valuations with major trading partners. Short-Term Watchlist: Fed speakers, Treasury yields, global risk sentiment. Medium-Term Focus: Central bank divergence, global growth differentials, dollar liquidity cycles.
• Global Equities: The post directly links tariffs to the 'Stock Market hit All Time Highs' and projects outcomes ranging from the 'Richest' country to 'Third World status.' These extreme claims indicate a profound impact on global equities. The 'Richest' scenario could lead to a global equity rally, especially in sectors tied to U.S. growth, while 'Third World status' would trigger a widespread global equity sell-off impacting indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, STOXX 600, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng. Short-Term Watchlist: Futures open, VIX spike/dip, FANG/semis/defense sectors. Medium-Term Focus: Earnings revisions, macro data (ISM, PMI), global capital flows, geopolitical overhangs.
• Fixed Income (Bonds): In a 'Richest' nation scenario, US 10Y and 2Y yields might rise due to robust economic growth and potential inflation, despite the post's claim of 'No Inflation' with tariffs. The 'Third World status' outcome would likely initially spark a flight to safety into U.S. Treasuries, but subsequently, a dramatic increase in yields could occur as credit risk escalates significantly. Short-Term Watchlist: UST 10Y yield levels, TED spread, credit ETF flows (e.g., HYG). Medium-Term Focus: Fed dot plots, fiscal concerns, debt ceiling rhetoric, economic surprise indices.
• Volatility / Derivatives: The stark contrast between potential outcomes – becoming the 'Richest' country or being reduced to 'Third World status' – suggests a high probability of extreme market volatility. Such a decision would necessitate significant re-pricing across all asset classes, likely causing a substantial spike in the VIX. Short-Term Watchlist: VIX levels vs VIX futures term structure, 0DTE flow, SKEW index. Medium-Term Focus: Volatility regime shifts, macro policy uncertainty, systemic tail risk (e.g., elections, war).
• Crypto / Digital Assets: The post's narrative of national wealth and security, with outcomes ranging from 'Richest' to 'Third World status,' could influence Bitcoin (BTC) as either a risk-on asset (in the 'Richest' scenario) or a macro hedge against instability (in the 'Third World status' scenario). Its behavior would be closely tied to broader macro liquidity cycles and tech stock correlations. Short-Term Watchlist: BTC/USD, Coinbase order book activity, funding rates, ETH correlation. Medium-Term Focus: Regulatory news, stablecoin flows, ETH upgrade progress, macro liquidity backdrop.
• Cross-Asset Correlations and Systemic Risk: The extreme scenarios presented in the post ('Richest' vs. 'Third World status') imply a high risk of systemic shock. A 'ruination' outcome would likely lead to severe breakdowns in normal cross-asset correlations, with assets like equities and bonds potentially selling off simultaneously. This would signal widespread liquidity stress and margin call events across markets. Short-Term Watchlist: MOVE index, junk bond ETFs, gold/USD co-movement. Medium-Term Focus: Shadow banking risk, central bank intervention, market plumbing stress.
• Retail Sentiment / Market Psychology: The highly emotional and dramatic language, presenting a binary outcome between unprecedented prosperity and national decline, is likely to significantly influence retail investor sentiment. This could lead to periods of intense speculation (e.g., into 'meme stocks' or altcoins) or widespread panic selling, depending on the perceived probability of each outcome following the court decision. Short-Term Watchlist: GME/AMC volume, Twitter/X trends, Reddit sentiment, TikTok mentions. Medium-Term Focus: Social media influence on market structure, potential for coordinated retail pushes, policy/regulatory crackdown on retail trading behavior.