The Stable Genius Report

• Production of Blackwell has started.
• AI was invented in America.
• Blackwell AI is made in America.
• Blackwell AI is built for America and the world.
• The commencement of production fulfills a promise made by Jensen Huang.

The announcement of NVIDIA's Blackwell AI chip production starting, particularly with the 'Made in America' emphasis, signals strong product delivery and domestic manufacturing capabilities for a leading technology company. This news is likely to be positive for NVIDIA's stock, the semiconductor industry, and the broader S&P 500, especially the technology sector, by fostering confidence in American innovation and supply chain resilience.

The post focuses entirely on technological achievement, innovation, and domestic manufacturing, without any mention of threats, ultimatums, or military references, indicating no likelihood of international conflict escalation.

• Commodities: Gold (XAU) is unlikely to see significant movement due to this positive market news. Industrial metals like Copper might experience a slight positive sentiment from perceived industrial strength and technological advancement, but direct impact is limited. Short-Term Watchlist: Minor positive sentiment for industrial commodities, XAU/USD likely stable or experiencing slight downward pressure if risk-on sentiment dominates. Medium-Term Focus: Overall economic growth driven by tech sector performance.
• Currencies (Forex): The 'Made in America' theme and strong tech sector news could provide a slight positive impetus for the US Dollar Index (DXY) as it signals economic strength and innovation. Risk-on sentiment could also slightly favor the USD against safe-haven currencies. Short-Term Watchlist: DXY for upward movement, USDJPY for potential rise due to risk-on sentiment. Medium-Term Focus: Sustained strength in US technology and manufacturing sectors supporting the dollar's value.
• Global Equities: This announcement is highly positive for the S&P 500, particularly the technology (Nasdaq) and semiconductor sectors. NVIDIA's stock is expected to experience strong positive movement. Global indices like STOXX 600, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng might see spillover positive sentiment driven by general AI enthusiasm, but with less direct impact than US markets. Short-Term Watchlist: NVIDIA stock performance, semiconductor ETFs, Nasdaq futures. Medium-Term Focus: AI sector growth, tech earnings revisions, and global capital flows towards US technology.
• Fixed Income (Bonds): A risk-on sentiment spurred by positive tech news could lead to a slight increase in US 10Y and 2Y Treasury yields as investors shift from safe-haven bonds to equities. Flight to safety is unlikely. Short-Term Watchlist: US Treasury yields for upward trend. Medium-Term Focus: Economic growth prospects and their influence on Federal Reserve policy expectations.
• Volatility / Derivatives: The VIX is likely to compress or remain low due to positive market sentiment and reduced uncertainty in a key growth sector. Options positioning in NVIDIA and related tech stocks could become more bullish. Short-Term Watchlist: VIX levels (expected to decline or stay low), NVIDIA options activity. Medium-Term Focus: Sustained lower volatility if positive tech sector momentum continues.
• Crypto / Digital Assets: Bitcoin (BTC) may behave as a risk-on asset, potentially seeing a boost due to overall positive market sentiment and increased liquidity in the broader markets. Correlation with tech stocks could lead to an upward move. Short-Term Watchlist: BTC/USD price action, correlation with Nasdaq performance. Medium-Term Focus: Macro liquidity backdrop and continued risk-on sentiment in broader markets.
• Cross-Asset Correlations and Systemic Risk: Normal correlations are likely to hold, with equities potentially rising and bonds seeing a slight decline. There are no indications of systemic stress or liquidity issues; rather, this is a positive market catalyst. Short-Term Watchlist: MOVE index (expected to be stable or decline), equity-bond correlation. Medium-Term Focus: Continued health and growth in the technology sector.
• Retail Sentiment / Market Psychology: Positive news regarding a high-profile company like NVIDIA and the AI sector will likely boost retail investor confidence and interest in tech stocks and related AI investments. This could inspire speculation in specific AI-related companies or ETFs. Short-Term Watchlist: Social media trends regarding NVIDIA, AI ETFs, and tech stocks. Medium-Term Focus: Sustained retail interest in growth sectors and potential for further investment in AI.