The Stable Genius Report

• Tariffs are generating trillions of dollars in revenue and investment from foreign lands.
• The threat of tariffs has directly stopped five of eight wars or prevented them from starting.
• There is almost no inflation.
• The worst inflation in USA History occurred under Sleepy Joe Biden.
• The Stock Market just hit an ALL-TIME HIGH for the 48th time in 9 months.
• A court system will prevent 'Countries and Slimeballs' like Leonard Leo and Koch from destroying the United States through their own tariffs.
• The USA is currently the richest, strongest, and most respected it has ever been.
• November 5th and tariffs are the reasons for these positive outcomes.

The post directly addresses economic policy through the stated impact of tariffs, claiming they generate trillions in revenue and investment. It also highlights the stock market reaching all-time highs and implicitly credits tariffs for this prosperity. These claims, especially concerning tariffs, suggest future policy direction that could significantly influence corporate earnings, trade flows, and investor sentiment, thereby impacting the S&P 500.

The post claims tariffs have stopped five of eight wars and warns 'Countries and Slimeballs' that a court system will prevent them from exploiting the U.S. This rhetoric suggests an adversarial relationship with certain foreign entities and an intent to use tariffs as a tool for geopolitical leverage and deterrence, which carries inherent risk of economic confrontation but not direct military escalation.

• Commodities: Gold (XAU) is likely to rise due to increased trade tensions and uncertainty from aggressive tariff policies, serving as a safe-haven asset. Oil (WTI) could see volatility based on global growth forecasts and potential supply chain reconfigurations resulting from widespread tariffs. Industrial metals like copper may face headwinds if global industrial demand weakens under tariff regimes. Short-Term Watchlist: XAU/USD price action, headlines regarding specific tariff implementations, commodity-exporting country currencies. Medium-Term Focus: Global trade volume data, impact of tariffs on manufacturing PMIs, USD strength.
• Currencies (Forex): The US Dollar Index (DXY) is likely to strengthen as tariff policies are asserted to bring trillions of dollars and investment into the U.S., increasing demand for the dollar. Major pairs like EURUSD and USDJPY could see downward pressure if U.S. tariff policy is seen as economically disruptive for other major trading blocs. USDCNH would be a key watch if China is a primary target of renewed tariff policies. Short-Term Watchlist: DXY movements, reactions from major central banks to trade policy, Treasury yield differentials. Medium-Term Focus: Global trade balance shifts, capital flow data, perceived economic resilience of the U.S. versus other nations.
• Global Equities: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq may see continued support based on claims of economic strength and capital inflow, especially for domestic-focused sectors. However, global indices like STOXX 600, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng could experience downward pressure due to increased trade friction and uncertainty stemming from broad tariff applications. Sectors with extensive international supply chains or significant export exposure would be particularly vulnerable. Short-Term Watchlist: Futures open, VIX levels, performance of multinational versus domestic companies, trade-sensitive sectors (e.g., semiconductors, autos). Medium-Term Focus: Corporate earnings revisions based on tariff impacts, global economic growth forecasts, shifts in capital allocation between regions.
• Fixed Income (Bonds): US 10Y and 2Y yields could experience upward pressure if the narrative of economic strength and trillions in incoming funds leads to expectations of higher inflation or sustained domestic growth. However, a potential increase in global trade tensions due to tariffs could also trigger a flight to safety, leading to initial demand for U.S. Treasuries and potentially lower yields. Credit spreads could widen for companies heavily impacted by tariffs or trade disruptions. Short-Term Watchlist: UST 10Y yield levels, corporate bond spreads for import/export reliant companies. Medium-Term Focus: Inflation expectations, Fed policy outlook in response to trade and growth, fiscal implications of tariff revenues.
• Volatility / Derivatives: The VIX is likely to spike due to heightened policy uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their global economic implications. Increased trade friction often leads to greater market volatility as investors price in potential disruptions to supply chains and corporate earnings. Options positioning would likely reflect a demand for protection against downside risks. Short-Term Watchlist: VIX levels versus VIX futures term structure, implied volatility on trade-sensitive sectors. Medium-Term Focus: Macro policy uncertainty, potential for volatility regime shifts if tariff policies become a sustained fixture.
• Crypto / Digital Assets: Bitcoin (BTC) could behave as a macro hedge against traditional market volatility if tariffs lead to significant global trade uncertainty and economic instability, potentially seeing inflows as a 'digital gold.' Conversely, if the narrative of U.S. economic strength prevails, BTC might also correlate with risk-on assets like tech stocks. Regulatory news related to international finance and capital flows could also impact digital assets. Short-Term Watchlist: BTC/USD price action relative to DXY and VIX, funding rates, correlation with global equities. Medium-Term Focus: Macro liquidity conditions, regulatory clarity, broader adoption rates amidst geopolitical shifts.
• Cross-Asset Correlations and Systemic Risk: Tariffs could lead to breakdowns in normal cross-asset correlations, especially if trade tensions escalate, causing both equities and bonds to sell off simultaneously in certain regions. Risks of liquidity stress or margin calls could increase if global trade flows are significantly disrupted and corporate profits are negatively impacted. The MOVE index would be a key indicator for fixed income volatility, while junk bond ETFs could reflect credit market stress. Short-Term Watchlist: Correlation matrix shifts, credit default swap spreads, signs of USD liquidity tightness. Medium-Term Focus: Central bank responses to trade-induced economic shifts, potential for systemic tail risks arising from fractured global trade.
• Retail Sentiment / Market Psychology: The post, with its strong claims of economic success ('richest, strongest,' 'all-time high') and populist rhetoric against 'slimeballs,' is likely to strongly influence retail sentiment. This could potentially trigger increased retail speculation in domestic-focused equities or sectors perceived to benefit from protectionist policies. Social media trends and discussions around 'Made in USA' or 'America First' themes could see heightened activity. Short-Term Watchlist: GME/AMC volume, mentions of specific companies or sectors on social media platforms like Reddit and X, Robinhood trading data. Medium-Term Focus: Long-term impact of populist economic narratives on retail investment trends, regulatory attention on social media-driven market events.