The Stable Genius Report

• The United States has made hundreds of billions of dollars from tariffs.
• The full benefit of tariffs has not yet been calculated because buyers stocked up to avoid immediate payment.
• Heavy inventory purchases by buyers are now diminishing.
• Soon, tariffs will be paid on all applicable goods without avoidance.
• Amounts payable to the USA from tariffs will "skyrocket" beyond current historic levels.
• These future tariff payments will be "record setting" and set the nation on an unprecedented course.
• America is currently the "hottest" country in the world.
• Increased tariff power will bring America national security and wealth never before seen.
• Those opposing tariffs are serving hostile foreign interests that are not aligned with the success, safety, and prosperity of the USA.
• Opponents to tariffs "couldn't care less" about the USA.
• A United States Supreme Court decision is pending on an urgent and time-sensitive matter regarding tariffs.
• The desired outcome is to continue the "MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN" agenda without interruption.

The post projects a 'skyrocketing' increase in tariff collections, which directly implies significant changes in international trade costs for S&P 500 companies. This would impact corporate supply chains, import/export costs, and potentially consumer prices, thereby affecting corporate earnings and investment decisions. The mention of an impending Supreme Court decision adds regulatory uncertainty to the future of tariff policy, creating market volatility and requiring companies to reassess their operational strategies.

The post categorizes those opposing tariffs as serving "hostile foreign interests," suggesting a heightened confrontational stance in trade policy. While not directly threatening military action or specific nations, this rhetoric could exacerbate existing trade tensions and increase the perception of international animosity, contributing to a low-level geopolitical risk by framing trade as a zero-sum game with adversarial actors.

• Commodities: Gold (XAU) is likely to rise due to increased global trade uncertainty and its role as a safe-haven asset. Industrial commodities like Copper may experience downward pressure if heightened tariffs negatively impact global manufacturing demand and economic growth. Oil (WTI) could see volatility based on potential global growth slowdowns or supply chain reconfigurations. Short-Term Watchlist: XAU/USD price action, headlines on trade negotiations/escalations, commodity demand indicators. Medium-Term Focus: Global manufacturing PMIs, inflation trends, USD trajectory.
• Currencies (Forex): The US Dollar Index (DXY) may strengthen as tariffs are perceived to boost US revenue and as a safe haven amidst global trade uncertainty, especially if they negatively impact other economies more significantly. Pairs like USDJPY and EURUSD would likely react to shifts in risk sentiment, trade balances, and central bank outlooks concerning trade's economic impact. Short-Term Watchlist: Global risk sentiment, Treasury yields. Medium-Term Focus: Central bank divergence (especially relative to trade impact), global growth differentials, trade balance data.
• Global Equities: Global equities, including S&P 500, Nasdaq, STOXX 600, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng, are likely to face downward pressure due to increased trade barriers, supply chain disruptions, and potential reductions in corporate profitability for multinational companies. Sectors heavily reliant on international trade, such as manufacturing, technology, and consumer discretionary, could be particularly vulnerable. Short-Term Watchlist: Futures open, VIX spike, earnings reports from multinational corporations, sector-specific performance. Medium-Term Focus: Earnings revisions, global capital flows, geopolitical overhangs related to trade policy.
• Fixed Income (Bonds): US 10Y and 2Y yields could initially fall due to a flight to safety as global trade uncertainty increases, particularly if growth concerns become dominant. However, if tariffs are perceived as inflationary, upward pressure on yields could emerge. Credit spreads may widen in riskier corporate segments as profitability is threatened. Short-Term Watchlist: UST 10Y yield levels, TED spread, credit ETF flows. Medium-Term Focus: Fed's reaction to potential inflation/growth impacts, fiscal concerns related to trade revenue, yield curve dynamics.
• Volatility / Derivatives: The VIX is highly likely to spike due to the significant policy uncertainty surrounding trade and the potential for increased global trade disputes. Options positioning might amplify market moves, especially in sectors heavily exposed to tariffs. Short-Term Watchlist: VIX levels vs VIX futures term structure, 0DTE flow. Medium-Term Focus: Volatility regime shifts, macro policy uncertainty surrounding trade, systemic tail risks from trade wars.
• Crypto / Digital Assets: Bitcoin (BTC) may initially behave as a risk-on asset, potentially selling off alongside traditional equities amidst increased global trade uncertainty. However, persistent trade tensions and monetary policy responses could also see it emerge as an alternative hedge against traditional financial instability or fiat currency volatility in the medium term. Short-Term Watchlist: BTC/USD price action, correlation to tech stocks, funding rates. Medium-Term Focus: Regulatory news on trade/tariffs, macro liquidity backdrop, stablecoin flows, digital asset adoption trends.
• Cross-Asset Correlations and Systemic Risk: Watch for potential breakdowns in normal cross-asset correlations, particularly if equities and bonds sell off simultaneously due to a mix of growth fears and inflationary pressures from tariffs. Margin calls and liquidity stress could emerge in highly exposed sectors or regions. Short-Term Watchlist: MOVE index, junk bond ETFs, gold/USD co-movement. Medium-Term Focus: Central bank intervention, market plumbing stress from capital outflows, shadow banking risk related to trade financing.
• Retail Sentiment / Market Psychology: The strong, nationalistic rhetoric and bold claims about future wealth could energize retail investors, potentially leading to increased speculation in specific sectors perceived to benefit from protectionist policies, or in meme stocks as a general expression of market sentiment. Retail traders might react strongly to news concerning trade policy and its implications for domestic industries. Short-Term Watchlist: GME/AMC volume, Twitter/X trends, Reddit sentiment on "America First" industries, TikTok mentions. Medium-Term Focus: Social media influence on market structure, potential for coordinated retail pushes, policy/regulatory crackdown on retail trading behavior.