The Stable Genius Report

• The United States will allow NVIDIA to ship H200 products to approved customers in China and other countries.
• Shipments will occur under conditions ensuring strong National Security.
• President Xi responded positively to this development.
• 25% of the proceeds will be paid to the United States of America.
• This policy will support American Jobs, strengthen U.S. Manufacturing, and benefit American Taxpayers.
• The Biden Administration forced companies to create "degraded" products, which slowed innovation and harmed American workers.
• The era of creating "degraded" products is concluded.
• The new policy will protect National Security, create American Jobs, and maintain America’s lead in AI.
• NVIDIA’s U.S. Customers are already using Blackwell chips and will soon use Rubin chips, which are not included in this deal.
• The Administration will always prioritize America FIRST.
• The Department of Commerce is finalizing the details.
• The same approach will be applied to AMD, Intel, and other American companies.

The post announces a significant policy shift directly impacting major S&P 500 technology companies (NVIDIA, AMD, Intel) by allowing them access to the Chinese market for advanced products. The mention of a 25% payment to the U.S. and benefits to American jobs and manufacturing suggests a material financial impact, likely boosting investor sentiment for these companies and the broader tech sector.

The post describes a cooperative agreement with China regarding specific technology exports, with a claimed positive response from President Xi. This suggests a reduction in trade friction in this sector, rather than an escalation of international conflict.

• Commodities: No direct impact on major commodities. Gold (XAU) might see a slight downward pressure if perceived as a de-escalation of U.S.-China trade friction, enhancing risk-on sentiment. Oil and industrial metals are unlikely to be directly affected by this specific tech policy.
• Currencies (Forex): The US Dollar Index (DXY) could see modest upward pressure due to perceived economic benefits for the U.S. (25% payment, job creation) and potentially improved risk sentiment. USDCNH might react to the nuances of U.S.-China trade sentiment, but direct impact on CNH from this specific policy may be limited.
• Global Equities: Strong positive impact on U.S. semiconductor companies (NVIDIA, AMD, Intel) as market access to China for H200 products is enabled. This could lead to a boost in their stock prices and potentially lift the broader S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, particularly in the tech sector. Global equities like STOXX 600, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng might see a general positive risk-on spillover from improved U.S.-China trade sentiment, but the direct impact would be less pronounced.
• Fixed Income (Bonds): U.S. 10Y and 2Y Treasury yields could see slight upward pressure if the policy is interpreted as positive for U.S. economic growth and a reduction in U.S.-China trade friction, decreasing demand for safe-haven assets. This could contribute to a slight steepening of the yield curve.
• Volatility / Derivatives: The VIX is likely to compress slightly, reflecting a decrease in perceived market uncertainty related to U.S.-China tech trade tensions. Options positioning might see reduced demand for out-of-the-money puts on tech stocks.
• Crypto / Digital Assets: Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets may behave as risk-on assets, potentially experiencing a slight positive movement in line with improved sentiment towards global equities, especially tech stocks, and a perceived de-escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions.
• Cross-Asset Correlations and Systemic Risk: Unlikely to trigger systemic risk or a breakdown in normal cross-asset correlations. The policy could reinforce a risk-on environment, leading to a mild positive correlation across equities and some reduction in safe-haven demand.
• Retail Sentiment / Market Psychology: Retail sentiment is likely to be positive, especially among investors holding positions in U.S. semiconductor companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel, given the expanded market access and the promise of 'American Jobs' and 'U.S. Manufacturing.' The rhetoric may also galvanize specific retail bases.