The Stable Genius Report

• Inflation under President Trump dropped to approximately 2.7%.
• This inflation drop was the first overall price decline since 2020.
• Inflation under Biden hit 9.1%.
• The 9.1% inflation under Biden constitutes the worst inflation crisis in decades.

The post discusses historical inflation rates under different administrations, highlighting a period of lower inflation under Trump and a higher rate under Biden. High inflation (as attributed to Biden) generally concerns equity markets due to potential interest rate hikes and reduced corporate earnings. While it does not introduce new policy, it reinforces a narrative about economic conditions that could influence long-term investor sentiment and political discourse, indirectly impacting S&P 500 outlooks.

The post focuses exclusively on domestic economic issues, specifically inflation under different US presidential administrations, and contains no references to international relations, military actions, or geopolitical tensions.

• Commodities: The post refers to past US inflation data. While high inflation generally impacts commodity prices (e.g., gold as an inflation hedge, oil via demand/supply dynamics influenced by economic health), this post is retrospective and does not introduce new immediate drivers. Short-Term Watchlist: XAU/USD price action, oil inventory reports, headlines on Iran/OPEC. Medium-Term Focus: Inflation trends, Fed policy, China industrial data, USD trajectory.
• Currencies (Forex): The post highlights differing inflation periods in the US. A narrative of higher inflation (under Biden) could, in a forward-looking context, imply Fed action, affecting the DXY. However, as a retrospective political comparison, its immediate impact is minimal. Short-Term Watchlist: Fed speakers, Treasury yields, global risk sentiment. Medium-Term Focus: Central bank divergence (Fed vs ECB/BoJ), global growth differentials, dollar liquidity cycles.
• Global Equities: The narrative contrasts economic performance related to inflation, a key factor for corporate profitability and consumer spending. While not a direct market mover, it contributes to the broader economic narrative relevant to all global equities. Short-Term Watchlist: Futures open, VIX spike/dip, FANG/semis/defense sectors. Medium-Term Focus: Earnings revisions, macro data (ISM, PMI), global capital flows, geopolitical overhangs.
• Fixed Income (Bonds): Inflation is a primary driver for bond yields. A narrative emphasizing high inflation (Biden) could suggest higher future interest rates, which would depress bond prices and raise yields. However, this post is about past data. Short-Term Watchlist: UST 10Y yield levels, TED spread, credit ETF flows (e.g., HYG). Medium-Term Focus: Fed dot plots, fiscal concerns, debt ceiling rhetoric, economic surprise indices.
• Volatility / Derivatives: The post does not contain any content that would directly trigger a significant spike or compression in volatility indices like the VIX. It is a political comparison based on past data. Short-Term Watchlist: VIX levels vs VIX futures term structure, 0DTE flow, SKEW index. Medium-Term Focus: Volatility regime shifts, macro policy uncertainty, systemic tail risk (e.g., elections, war).
• Crypto / Digital Assets: Bitcoin and other digital assets are sensitive to macro liquidity and risk sentiment, which are influenced by inflation narratives. However, this specific post's retrospective nature and political framing are unlikely to cause an immediate or direct impact. Short-Term Watchlist: BTC/USD, Coinbase order book activity, funding rates, ETH correlation. Medium-Term Focus: Regulatory news, stablecoin flows, ETH upgrade progress, macro liquidity backdrop.
• Cross-Asset Correlations and Systemic Risk: The post is unlikely to cause a breakdown in normal correlations or systemic liquidity stress. It is a political advertisement, not a trigger for financial contagion. Short-Term Watchlist: MOVE index, junk bond ETFs, gold/USD co-movement. Medium-Term Focus: Shadow banking risk, central bank intervention, market plumbing stress.
• Retail Sentiment / Market Psychology: The post targets a general audience with a political message about economic performance. While discussions around inflation can fuel public sentiment, this particular post is unlikely to directly trigger specific retail speculation in meme stocks or altcoins. Short-Term Watchlist: GME/AMC volume, Twitter/X trends, Reddit sentiment, TikTok mentions. Medium-Term Focus: Social media influence on market structure, potential for coordinated retail pushes, policy/regulatory crackdown on retail trading behavior.