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Filtering by entity: McLaughlin & Associates | Clear Filter
Summary:A survey report indicates that Thomas Massie's standing among likely Republican primary voters in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District has significantly declined, making him vulnerable to a Republican challenger endorsed by President Trump, whose policies Massie is perceived to have opposed.
Sentiment:Campaigning
Key Claims:
- A "MAGA Kentucky" advertising campaign has caused Thomas Massie's polling numbers to decline.
- Thomas Massie is now extremely vulnerable in a Republican primary election for Congress.
- Republican primary voters are rejecting Thomas Massie's record of standing with Democrats against President Trump's tax cuts and policies.
- Massie's favorable image rating has shifted from a net +14 to a net -11, a 25-point net negative swing.
- Massie's job approval rating has shifted from a net +11 to a net -16, a 27-point net negative shift.
- The perception of Massie's ideology becoming more liberal has increased from 13% to 27%, while his conservative rating decreased from 62% to 45%.
- Thomas Massie's re-elect score decreased from 41% in June to 30%.
- An incumbent with a re-elect score under 40% is considered vulnerable in a primary.
- A Republican candidate endorsed and backed by President Trump would be in a strong position to win.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):0/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:0/10
Summary:The post presents a poll summary indicating that incumbent Republican Congressman Thomas Massie is vulnerable in the Kentucky 4th Congressional District Republican Primary, asserting that a candidate endorsed by President Trump would defeat him, and highlighting President Trump's high popularity among Republican primary voters and strong support for his tax cut bill.
Sentiment:Campaigning
Key Claims:
- Incumbent Republican Congressman Thomas Massie is vulnerable in the Kentucky 4th Congressional District.
- Only a bare majority (54%) of Republican primary voters are favorable to Thomas Massie, while 40% are unfavorable.
- Only 52% approve of Massie's job performance in Congress.
- A candidate endorsed by President Trump can defeat Congressman Massie.
- A generic candidate with 13 years of experience and a conservative record would lose to a 'staunch supporter of President Trump and the America First Agenda' (53% to 19%).
- A candidate endorsed by President Trump would defeat Thomas Massie (52% to 23%).
- President Trump is extremely popular among Republican primary voters.
- 87% approve of President Trump and his policies, with 75% strongly approving.
- 85% are favorable to Donald Trump, with 66% very favorable.
- Republican primary voters cite Massie's opposition to President Trump as a reason for disfavor.
- Congressman Massie is seen as an opponent to President Trump by some, with 49% disagreeing that 'Thomas Massie supports Donald Trump.'
- President Trump's Tax Cut bill is very popular.
- 74% supported President Trump's tax cut bill that Congress recently passed.
- 84% say it is important for President Trump's agenda to pass for America.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):1/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:0/10
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