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Summary:A telephone conversation with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum was completed, resulting in an agreement to extend existing tariffs on Fentanyl, cars, steel, aluminum, and copper for 90 days. Mexico also agreed to immediately terminate its non-tariff trade barriers. Both parties will negotiate a new trade deal within or potentially beyond the 90-day period, and cooperation on border security, including drugs and illegal immigration, will continue.
Sentiment:Negotiating
Key Claims:
  • A very successful telephone conversation was held with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.
  • The U.S. and Mexico are increasing their mutual understanding.
  • The complexities of a deal with Mexico are unique due to border issues.
  • The exact same deal as the last short period was extended for 90 days.
  • Mexico will continue to pay a 25% Fentanyl Tariff, 25% Tariff on Cars, and 50% Tariff on Steel, Aluminum, and Copper.
  • Mexico has agreed to immediately terminate its Non Tariff Trade Barriers.
  • Talks will occur over the next 90 days to sign a trade deal within or beyond that period.
  • Key U.S. officials were present at the meeting: JD Vance, Scott Bessent, Marco Rubio, Howard Lutnick, Jamieson Greer, Susie Wiles, and Stephen Miller.
  • Continued cooperation on border security, including drugs, drug distribution, and illegal immigration into the United States, will take place.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):5/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:5/10
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Summary:A letter from the White House to the President of Mexico states that the United States will impose a 30% tariff on all Mexican products starting August 1, 2025. This action is attributed to Mexico's failure to stop drug cartels and the flow of fentanyl into the US, and to address unsustainable trade deficits. The letter specifies that transshipped goods will also be subject to the tariff and that if Mexico raises its tariffs, the US will add that increase to its 30% charge. It also notes that companies can avoid tariffs by manufacturing products within the United States.
Sentiment:Threatening
Key Claims:
  • The United States will charge a 30% tariff on all Mexican products starting August 1, 2025.
  • The tariffs are being imposed due to Mexico's failure to stop drug cartels and the flow of fentanyl into the United States.
  • Cartels are attempting to turn North America into a 'Narco-Trafficking Playground'.
  • Goods transshipped through Mexico to evade higher tariffs will be subject to the higher tariff.
  • If Mexico decides to raise its tariffs, the US will add that increase to its 30% charge.
  • Companies can avoid tariffs by building or manufacturing products within the United States.
  • The flow of fentanyl is not the only challenge; unsustainable trade deficits are a major threat to the US economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):9/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:8/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:9/10