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Summary:A letter from The White House to the King of Thailand announces the United States' intention to impose a 36% tariff on all Thai products starting August 1, 2025, due to persistent and unreciprocal trade deficits. The letter states that goods transshipped to evade this tariff will face higher tariffs, and indicates that no tariffs will apply if manufacturing occurs within the United States. It also warns that any retaliatory tariffs from Thailand will be added to the US tariff, characterizing the existing trade deficit as a threat to the US economy and national security.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Thailand.
  • The trade relationship between the US and Thailand has been unreciprocal due to Thailand's tariffs, non-tariff policies, and trade barriers.
  • Starting August 1, 2025, the United States will charge Thailand a 36% tariff on all Thai products.
  • Goods transshipped to evade the 36% tariff will be subject to a higher tariff.
  • There will be no tariff if Thailand, or companies within Thailand, decide to build or manufacture product within the United States.
  • If Thailand raises its tariffs, that amount will be added to the 36% US tariff.
  • The unsustainable trade deficits with Thailand are a major threat to the US Economy and National Security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):8/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:6/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:7/10