The Stable Genius Report

Stay informed on the latest Truth Social posts from Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump) without the doomscrolling. Consider it a public service for your mental health. (Why?)

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Summary:President Donald J. Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law, a policy aimed at establishing U.S. leadership in global digital currency.
Sentiment:Triumphant
Key Claims:
  • The GENIUS Act was signed into law by President Donald J. Trump.
  • The GENIUS Act establishes U.S. leadership in global digital currency.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):6/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:7/10
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Summary:The post asserts that President Trump fulfilled and exceeded his promises, supported by an image of him in a resolute stance with the Presidential Seal visible, and a link to a White House article validating this claim from a future date.
Sentiment:Campaigning
Key Claims:
  • President Trump has fulfilled his promises.
  • President Trump has exceeded his promises.
  • The White House has published an article affirming President Trump's accomplishments.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):1/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:1/10
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Summary:Donald Trump expresses strong support for Jair Bolsonaro, criticizing the "terrible treatment" he receives from an "unjust system" and advocating for the immediate cessation of his trial. The letter raises concerns about attacks on free speech and a "ridiculous censorship regime" in Brazil and the United States, explicitly stating Trump's disapproval through public statements and tariff policy, and urging the Government of Brazil to cease attacking political opponents.
Sentiment:Advocating
Key Claims:
  • Jair Bolsonaro is receiving terrible treatment from an unjust system.
  • Bolsonaro's trial should end immediately.
  • Bolsonaro is a highly respected and strong leader.
  • There are attacks on free speech in Brazil and the United States, originating from the current government.
  • Donald Trump has publicly voiced disapproval and utilized tariff policy regarding these issues.
  • The Government of Brazil should change its course, stop attacking political opponents, and end its censorship regime.
  • Donald Trump will be watching the situation closely.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):2/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:4/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10
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Summary:President Trump enacts the HALT Fentanyl Act into law, addressing the fentanyl crisis as depicted by the image of him holding a photo during the signing event.
Sentiment:Policy-focused
Key Claims:
  • President Trump signed the HALT Fentanyl Act into law.
  • The act addresses the fentanyl crisis.
  • The signing event took place at The White House.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):1/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:0/10
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Summary:The post, presented with a Border Patrol vehicle in a desert setting at sunset, states that June saw zero releases of illegal aliens and was the lowest month on record for illegal alien encounters, attributed to The White House.
Sentiment:Triumphant
Key Claims:
  • Zero illegal alien releases occurred in June.
  • June marked the lowest month ever for illegal alien encounters.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):0/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:0/10
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Summary:The post presents a narrative that families across the United States could receive thousands in additional take-home pay through savings generated by President Donald Trump's 'big beautiful bill,' detailed in a state-by-state breakdown published by Fox News and accessible via a White House website.
Sentiment:Campaigning
Key Claims:
  • People in each state could pocket money under Trump's 'big beautiful bill' savings.
  • Families could see thousands in additional take-home pay from Trump's 'big, beautiful bill'.
  • The 'big beautiful bill' will deliver the largest tax cut in history, higher wages, and higher take-home pay.
  • A state-by-state breakdown of these savings is available.
  • The information is presented as originating from 'The White House' under 'President Donald J. Trump'.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):7/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:8/10
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Summary:The White House announces its intent to impose a 30% tariff on all European Union products imported into the United States starting August 1, 2025. This action is presented as a response to persistent trade deficits and non-reciprocal trade practices with the EU, which are deemed a threat to U.S. economy and national security. The letter indicates that if the EU retaliates with its own tariffs, those amounts will be added on top of the existing 30% U.S. tariff, while offering tariff exemptions for EU companies that manufacture within the United States.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a long-term, large, and persistent trade deficit with the European Union.
  • The trade deficit is caused by European Union tariffs and non-tariff barriers, making the relationship non-reciprocal.
  • Effective August 1, 2025, the U.S. will charge a 30% tariff on all European Union products sent into the United States.
  • Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to those higher tariffs.
  • No tariffs will apply if European Union companies decide to build or manufacture products within the United States.
  • The U.S. will facilitate quick approvals for European Union companies manufacturing within the United States.
  • The European Union is expected to allow complete, open market access to the United States without U.S. tariffs.
  • If the European Union retaliates by raising its tariffs, that amount will be added onto the 30% U.S. tariff.
  • These tariffs are necessary to correct the many years of European Union Tariff and Non-Tariff Policies and Trade Barriers.
  • The large and unsustainable trade deficits against the United States are a major threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):9/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:5/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:9/10
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Summary:A letter from the White House to the President of Mexico states that the United States will impose a 30% tariff on all Mexican products starting August 1, 2025. This action is attributed to Mexico's failure to stop drug cartels and the flow of fentanyl into the US, and to address unsustainable trade deficits. The letter specifies that transshipped goods will also be subject to the tariff and that if Mexico raises its tariffs, the US will add that increase to its 30% charge. It also notes that companies can avoid tariffs by manufacturing products within the United States.
Sentiment:Threatening
Key Claims:
  • The United States will charge a 30% tariff on all Mexican products starting August 1, 2025.
  • The tariffs are being imposed due to Mexico's failure to stop drug cartels and the flow of fentanyl into the United States.
  • Cartels are attempting to turn North America into a 'Narco-Trafficking Playground'.
  • Goods transshipped through Mexico to evade higher tariffs will be subject to the higher tariff.
  • If Mexico decides to raise its tariffs, the US will add that increase to its 30% charge.
  • Companies can avoid tariffs by building or manufacturing products within the United States.
  • The flow of fentanyl is not the only challenge; unsustainable trade deficits are a major threat to the US economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):9/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:8/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:9/10
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Summary:The United States informs Sri Lanka via a letter dated July 9, 2025, that it will impose a 30% tariff on all Sri Lankan products entering the US starting August 1, 2025. This action is stated as a response to a significant and persistent trade deficit caused by Sri Lanka's tariffs and trade barriers, which are deemed a major threat to the US economy and national security. The letter indicates that tariffs can be avoided if Sri Lankan companies manufacture products within the United States, and warns that any future Sri Lankan tariff increases will be added to the 30% US tariff.
Sentiment:Vindicative
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Sri Lanka.
  • Sri Lanka's tariffs and non-tariff policies are responsible for these trade deficits.
  • These trade deficits pose a major threat to the US Economy and National Security.
  • Starting August 1, 2025, the United States will implement a 30% tariff on all Sri Lankan products.
  • Goods transshipped to avoid tariffs will also be subject to higher tariffs.
  • Sri Lanka or Sri Lankan companies can avoid these tariffs by manufacturing products within the United States.
  • Any tariffs raised by Sri Lanka will be added on top of the 30% US tariff.
  • The United States seeks a balanced and fair trade relationship.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):3/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:2/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:4/10
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Summary:A letter from the White House to the President of Brazil addresses Brazil's treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro as an "international disgrace" and a "Witch Hunt." It accuses Brazil of attacking free elections and free speech through unlawful censorship orders against U.S. social media platforms, including threats of fines and eviction from the Brazilian social media market. The letter announces a 50% tariff on all Brazilian products, effective August 1, 2025, due to these actions and long-standing unfair trade practices. It also offers the alternative of no tariffs if Brazil or Brazilian companies choose to build or manufacture products within the United States.
Sentiment:Directive and Punitive
Key Claims:
  • Brazil's treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro is an international disgrace and a "Witch Hunt" that should end immediately.
  • Brazil has engaged in "insidious attacks on Free Elections" and "fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans."
  • The Brazilian Supreme Court has issued "SECRET and UNLAWFUL Censorship Orders to U.S. Social Media platforms."
  • These censorship orders threaten U.S. social media platforms with "Millions of Dollars in Fines and Eviction from the Brazilian Social Media market."
  • The United States will charge Brazil a Tariff of 50% on all Brazilian products starting August 1, 2025.
  • Goods transshipped to evade the 50% Tariff will be subject to a higher Tariff.
  • The trade relationship with Brazil has been unfair due to Brazil's Tariff, and Non-Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers.
  • The 50% tariff is less than what is needed for a "Level Playing Field" in trade.
  • Tariffs can be avoided if Brazil or companies within Brazil choose to build or manufacture products within the United States, with approvals expedited in a matter of weeks.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):8/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:5/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:8/10