The Stable Genius Report

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Summary:Billions of dollars in tariffs have begun flowing into the United States of America.
Sentiment:Triumphant
Key Claims:
  • Billions of dollars in tariffs are flowing into the United States of America
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):2/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10
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Summary:An announcement of a comprehensive trade deal between the United States and the Republic of Korea, detailing South Korean financial contributions, energy purchases, investment commitments, and trade openness.
Sentiment:Triumphant
Key Claims:
  • The United States and South Korea have agreed to a Full and Complete Trade Deal.
  • South Korea will provide $350 billion for US-owned and controlled investments selected by the President.
  • South Korea will purchase $100 billion in LNG or other energy products.
  • South Korea will invest a significant sum for their own purposes, to be announced within two weeks during a bilateral meeting at the White House.
  • South Korea will be completely open to trade with the United States, accepting American products including cars, trucks, and agriculture.
  • A 15% tariff will be applied to South Korea, while America will not be charged a tariff.
  • The new President of South Korea, Lee Jae Myung, is congratulated on his electoral success.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):7/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:7/10
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Summary:A trade agreement has been announced with the Republic of Indonesia, opening their market to American industrial, tech, and agricultural products by eliminating 99% of their tariff barriers, while Indonesian products entering the U.S. will face a 19% tariff. The agreement also includes Indonesia supplying critical minerals and purchasing tens of billions of dollars worth of American goods, including Boeing aircraft, American farm products, and American energy.
Sentiment:Triumphant
Key Claims:
  • A trade agreement has been reached with the Republic of Indonesia.
  • Indonesia will eliminate 99% of its tariff barriers for American industrial, tech, and agricultural products.
  • The United States will sell American-made products to Indonesia at a zero tariff rate.
  • Indonesia will pay a 19% tariff on all of their products coming into the U.S.A.
  • Indonesia will supply the United States with critical minerals.
  • Indonesia will sign deals worth tens of billions of dollars to purchase Boeing Aircraft, American Farm products, and American Energy.
  • This deal is a significant win for U.S. automakers, tech companies, workers, farmers, ranchers, and manufacturers.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):6/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:5/10
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Summary:The United States has been exploited through decades of unfair trade and military arrangements, resulting in trillions of dollars in losses, a situation deemed unsustainable. The narrative suggests other nations should acknowledge this historical 'free ride' and the necessity for the U.S. to prioritize its own interests.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
  • The United States has been 'ripped off' on trade for decades.
  • The United States has been 'ripped off' on military arrangements for decades.
  • These arrangements have cost the U.S. 'trillions of dollars'.
  • The current situation is unsustainable and never was sustainable.
  • Other countries should recognize they have had a 'free ride' from the U.S.
  • The U.S. must now act to do what is 'right for America', and other countries should understand this.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):7/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:3/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:7/10
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Summary:The White House announces its intent to impose a 30% tariff on all European Union products imported into the United States starting August 1, 2025. This action is presented as a response to persistent trade deficits and non-reciprocal trade practices with the EU, which are deemed a threat to U.S. economy and national security. The letter indicates that if the EU retaliates with its own tariffs, those amounts will be added on top of the existing 30% U.S. tariff, while offering tariff exemptions for EU companies that manufacture within the United States.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a long-term, large, and persistent trade deficit with the European Union.
  • The trade deficit is caused by European Union tariffs and non-tariff barriers, making the relationship non-reciprocal.
  • Effective August 1, 2025, the U.S. will charge a 30% tariff on all European Union products sent into the United States.
  • Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to those higher tariffs.
  • No tariffs will apply if European Union companies decide to build or manufacture products within the United States.
  • The U.S. will facilitate quick approvals for European Union companies manufacturing within the United States.
  • The European Union is expected to allow complete, open market access to the United States without U.S. tariffs.
  • If the European Union retaliates by raising its tariffs, that amount will be added onto the 30% U.S. tariff.
  • These tariffs are necessary to correct the many years of European Union Tariff and Non-Tariff Policies and Trade Barriers.
  • The large and unsustainable trade deficits against the United States are a major threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):9/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:5/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:9/10
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Summary:A letter from the White House to the President of Mexico states that the United States will impose a 30% tariff on all Mexican products starting August 1, 2025. This action is attributed to Mexico's failure to stop drug cartels and the flow of fentanyl into the US, and to address unsustainable trade deficits. The letter specifies that transshipped goods will also be subject to the tariff and that if Mexico raises its tariffs, the US will add that increase to its 30% charge. It also notes that companies can avoid tariffs by manufacturing products within the United States.
Sentiment:Threatening
Key Claims:
  • The United States will charge a 30% tariff on all Mexican products starting August 1, 2025.
  • The tariffs are being imposed due to Mexico's failure to stop drug cartels and the flow of fentanyl into the United States.
  • Cartels are attempting to turn North America into a 'Narco-Trafficking Playground'.
  • Goods transshipped through Mexico to evade higher tariffs will be subject to the higher tariff.
  • If Mexico decides to raise its tariffs, the US will add that increase to its 30% charge.
  • Companies can avoid tariffs by building or manufacturing products within the United States.
  • The flow of fentanyl is not the only challenge; unsustainable trade deficits are a major threat to the US economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):9/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:8/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:9/10
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Summary:The post, an image of a letter from The White House, states that the United States will impose a 30% tariff on all products from Sri Lanka starting August 1, 2025, to address a significant and persistent trade deficit, which is described as a threat to U.S. economy and national security. The letter offers an alternative for Sri Lankan companies to avoid these tariffs by building or manufacturing products within the United States.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Sri Lanka.
  • The trade deficit with Sri Lanka is described as unsustainable and a major threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
  • The trade relationship between the United States and Sri Lanka has not been reciprocal.
  • Starting August 1, 2025, the U.S. will charge Sri Lanka a 30% tariff on all Sri Lankan products sent into the United States.
  • Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will also be subject to the higher tariff.
  • The 30% tariff is presented as less than what is needed to eliminate the existing trade deficit.
  • Sri Lankan companies can avoid tariffs by deciding to build or manufacture products within the United States.
  • The U.S. will facilitate quick, professional, and routine approvals for Sri Lankan companies choosing to manufacture within the U.S.
  • If Sri Lanka raises its tariffs, the U.S. will add that amount on top of the 30% tariff already charged.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):5/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:6/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:4/10
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Summary:The United States announces the imposition of a 30% tariff on all Libyan products imported into the U.S. beginning August 1, 2025, citing a significant and unsustainable trade deficit deemed a major threat to U.S. economy and national security. The letter states that goods manufactured by Libya or Libyan companies within the U.S. would be exempt from these tariffs, and warns that any retaliatory tariffs imposed by Libya would be added to the U.S.'s 30% charge.
Sentiment:Vindicative
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Libya.
  • The United States will impose a 30% tariff on all Libyan products imported into the U.S. starting August 1, 2025.
  • Goods transshipped to evade U.S. tariffs will be subject to higher tariffs.
  • Tariffs will not be applied to products manufactured by Libya or Libyan companies within the United States.
  • Any tariffs raised by Libya will be added to the U.S.'s 30% charge.
  • The trade deficits are an unsustainable threat to the U.S. Economy and National Security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):2/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:3/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10
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Summary:A letter from the White House dated July 9, 2025, addresses the President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, stating the United States faces a significant trade deficit with Moldova. To correct this, the letter announces a 25% tariff on all Moldovan products imported into the US, effective August 1, 2025. It further states that if Moldova raises its own tariffs, an equivalent amount will be added to the 25% US tariff. The letter concludes that the unsustainable trade deficits are a major threat to the US economy and national security.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant trade deficit with Moldova due to non-tariff, policies, and trade barriers.
  • Beginning August 1, 2025, the US will implement a 25% tariff on all Moldovan products imported into the United States.
  • Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to higher tariff rates.
  • No tariff will be applied if Moldova or companies within Moldova decide to build or manufacture products within the United States.
  • If Moldova raises its tariffs, the additional amount will be added to the 25% tariff charged by the US.
  • The unsustainable trade deficits are a major threat to the US Economy and National Security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):3/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:2/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10
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Summary:A letter from the White House dated July 9, 2025, addressed to the Sultan of Brunei, outlines a new trade policy stating that the United States will implement a 25% tariff on all Bruneian products starting August 1, 2025, due to a significant and unsustainable trade deficit. The letter asserts that the US-Brunei trade relationship is unilateral and non-reciprocal, and offers an exception for products manufactured within the US by Bruneian companies. It further warns that any increase in Bruneian tariffs will result in additional US charges beyond the initial 25%. The US frames this deficit as a major threat to its economy and national security.
Sentiment:Demanding
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant and unsustainable trade deficit with Brunei.
  • The US-Brunei trade relationship is unilateral and far from reciprocal.
  • Starting August 1, 2025, the US will charge a 25% tariff on all Bruneian products imported into the United States.
  • Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to that higher tariff.
  • There will be no US tariff if Brunei, or companies within Brunei, decide to build or manufacture products within the United States.
  • If Brunei raises its tariffs, an additional amount will be added to the 25% US charge.
  • Brunei's tariffs, non-tariff policies, and trade barriers are causing unsustainable trade deficits.
  • The trade deficit is a major threat to the US Economy and National Security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):3/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:1/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10