The Stable Genius Report

• Trump's team has made tremendous progress in ending the Russia-Ukraine War.
• The war would have never started if Trump were President.
• 25,000 soldiers died last month.
• The original 28-Point Peace Plan, drafted by the United States, has been fine-tuned with input from both sides.
• Only a few points of disagreement remain in the peace plan.
• Steve Witkoff has been directed to meet with President Putin in Moscow.
• Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll will be meeting with the Ukrainians.
• Trump will be briefed on all progress by Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
• Trump looks forward to meeting with President Zelenskyy and President Putin only when the peace deal is final or in its final stages.
• Peace can be accomplished as soon as possible.

The post details significant progress towards ending the Russia-Ukraine War, a major geopolitical conflict that has heavily influenced global markets. A successful resolution could significantly reduce geopolitical risk premiums, stabilize commodity prices, and boost overall investor confidence, potentially leading to a substantial positive impact on global equities, including the S&P 500.

The post describes active diplomatic efforts and negotiations aimed at resolving the Russia-Ukraine War, explicitly seeking to achieve peace and de-escalation. It does not contain threats, ultimatums, or military references that would suggest an increase in international conflict or tensions.

• Commodities: Gold (XAU) is likely to fall as a safe-haven asset if geopolitical fear subsides. Oil (WTI) prices could stabilize or fall due to reduced geopolitical risk and potential supply certainty. Industrial metals like Copper might rise on improved global growth prospects from reduced uncertainty. Short-Term Watchlist: XAU/USD price action, oil inventory reports, headlines on Russia/Ukraine negotiations. Medium-Term Focus: Global growth projections, energy policy from major producers, inflation outlook.
• Currencies (Forex): The US Dollar Index (DXY) might weaken as risk-off sentiment subsides, leading to a rotation into other currencies or riskier assets. Currencies of countries more directly impacted by the war (e.g., EUR) could strengthen on improved regional stability. Short-Term Watchlist: DXY reaction, EUR/USD movements, risk-on/risk-off indicators. Medium-Term Focus: Central bank policy divergence as inflation pressures shift, global trade flows.
• Global Equities: S&P 500, Nasdaq, STOXX 600, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng would likely see a broad rally on reduced geopolitical risk and improved investor confidence. Sectors tied to global trade, energy consumption, and reconstruction efforts could particularly benefit. Short-Term Watchlist: Futures open, VIX dip, sectors like industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary. Medium-Term Focus: Corporate earnings revisions, capital expenditure plans, long-term geopolitical stability.
• Fixed Income (Bonds): US 10Y and 2Y yields could rise as a flight to safety reverses and economic growth expectations improve, reducing demand for safe-haven bonds. Credit spreads might tighten as perceived corporate default risk decreases. Short-Term Watchlist: UST 10Y yield levels, corporate bond ETF flows, sovereign bond yields of European nations. Medium-Term Focus: Inflation expectations, central bank hawkishness, sovereign debt stability.
• Volatility / Derivatives: The VIX would likely compress significantly as geopolitical uncertainty and risk aversion diminish. Options positioning might see a shift from defensive strategies to more bullish plays. Short-Term Watchlist: VIX levels, equity index options volume, skew. Medium-Term Focus: Volatility regime shifts towards lower, more stable levels, implications for long-term hedging strategies.
• Crypto / Digital Assets: Bitcoin (BTC) could initially behave as a risk-on asset, potentially rising with equities due to improved macro sentiment and increased liquidity, assuming it's not primarily seen as a safe-haven from traditional financial instability. Short-Term Watchlist: BTC/USD price action, correlation with tech stocks, global liquidity indicators. Medium-Term Focus: Regulatory clarity, mainstream adoption, institutional investment in a more stable global environment.
• Cross-Asset Correlations and Systemic Risk: Normal correlations could re-assert themselves (e.g., equities and bonds moving inversely) as systemic stress subsides. Liquidity stress would likely ease. Short-Term Watchlist: MOVE index, credit default swap spreads, gold/equity correlation shifts. Medium-Term Focus: Overall market resilience, potential for new macro drivers, central bank policy adjustments.
• Retail Sentiment / Market Psychology: The announcement of potential peace could trigger a surge in positive retail sentiment, potentially leading to increased buying across various asset classes as risk appetite returns. Meme stocks or altcoins might see speculative interest if general market confidence increases. Short-Term Watchlist: Social media trends (Twitter/X, Reddit), retail brokerage app activity, search interest for investment terms. Medium-Term Focus: Sustained retail engagement, influence of positive macro news on retail investment decisions, potential for 'FOMO' rallies.