The Stable Genius Report

• Marc Thiessen predicts future events concerning Donald Trump.
• Donald Trump will visit Iran.
• Donald Trump will visit Havana (Cuba).
• Donald Trump will visit Caracas (Venezuela).
• These visits will occur only when Iran, Havana, and Caracas are 'free'.
• These visits will occur before Trump concludes a term in office.

The narrative, if considered a factual future development, suggests major geopolitical shifts in Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela. These events, especially regime changes or significant policy overhauls in oil-producing nations like Iran and Venezuela, would likely have a profound impact on global energy markets, international trade, and investor confidence, leading to substantial volatility and potential re-pricing in the S&P 500 across various sectors, including energy, defense, and multinational corporations.

The narrative, treating the prediction as a factual future event, implies substantial geopolitical actions or events leading to regime change or significant political transformation in Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela under a Trump administration. Such transformations, particularly for Iran and Venezuela, are inherently high-risk, potentially involving international pressure, economic sanctions, or military considerations that could escalate global tensions and conflicts in these regions.

• Commodities: Gold (XAU) would likely surge as a safe-haven asset due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty and potential for conflict, especially regarding Iran. Oil (WTI) prices would become highly volatile, potentially spiking due to supply disruption fears from Iran and Venezuela or falling if new regimes increase output significantly. Short-Term Watchlist: XAU/USD, WTI/BRENT price action, headlines on Middle East/Latin America. Medium-Term Focus: Geopolitical stability, oil supply/demand fundamentals, sanctions.
• Currencies (Forex): The US Dollar Index (DXY) would likely strengthen as a safe haven amidst global uncertainty, particularly if US involvement is perceived. Currencies of nations with strong ties to these regions or those considered risk-on (e.g., emerging market currencies) could weaken. Short-Term Watchlist: DXY, USDJPY, EURUSD, EM currencies. Medium-Term Focus: Global risk appetite, central bank policy divergence, safe-haven flows.
• Global Equities: S&P 500, Nasdaq, STOXX 600, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng would likely experience significant downside volatility due to increased geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty. Defense and energy sectors might see some re-evaluation, but broader market sentiment would be negative. Short-Term Watchlist: Futures open, VIX spike, defense/oil sector performance. Medium-Term Focus: Earnings revisions, macro data, global capital flows, geopolitical overhangs.
• Fixed Income (Bonds): US 10Y and 2Y yields would likely fall due to a strong flight to safety into US Treasuries. The yield curve might flatten or invert further depending on the perceived economic impact of the geopolitical events. Credit spreads would widen, particularly for riskier corporate bonds. Short-Term Watchlist: UST 10Y yield levels, TED spread, credit ETF flows. Medium-Term Focus: Fed policy, fiscal concerns, debt ceiling rhetoric, economic surprise indices.
• Volatility / Derivatives: The VIX would undoubtedly spike significantly, reflecting heightened market fear and uncertainty. Options positioning would become critical, with increased demand for puts and out-of-the-money calls on volatility. Short-Term Watchlist: VIX levels vs VIX futures term structure, SKEW index. Medium-Term Focus: Volatility regime shifts, macro policy uncertainty, systemic tail risk.
• Crypto / Digital Assets: Bitcoin (BTC) could react in two ways: initially as a risk-off asset, correlating with safe havens like gold, or it could fall with broader equities due to systemic risk. Much depends on the specific nature of the geopolitical events and liquidity conditions. Short-Term Watchlist: BTC/USD, correlation with XAU/USD vs equities. Medium-Term Focus: Regulatory news, stablecoin flows, macro liquidity backdrop, perceived role as a digital safe haven.
• Cross-Asset Correlations and Systemic Risk: Correlations would likely shift, with traditional safe havens strengthening and risk assets weakening. There would be an increased risk of breakdowns in normal correlations and potential for margin calls or liquidity stress if the geopolitical events are severe. Short-Term Watchlist: MOVE index, junk bond ETFs, gold/USD co-movement. Medium-Term Focus: Shadow banking risk, central bank intervention, market plumbing stress.
• Retail Sentiment / Market Psychology: The narrative of Trump bringing 'freedom' to these nations would likely resonate strongly with his base, potentially boosting retail confidence in his political agenda. However, broader retail sentiment in markets would likely become highly cautious and fearful, potentially leading to increased selling pressure in equities and a flight to perceived safety, while also potentially sparking speculative interest in specific commodities or defense stocks. Short-Term Watchlist: GME/AMC volume (less relevant here but as a proxy for speculative interest), Twitter/X trends, Reddit sentiment, TikTok mentions. Medium-Term Focus: Social media influence on market structure, potential for coordinated retail pushes, policy/regulatory crackdown on retail trading behavior.