The Stable Genius Report

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Summary:Announcement of Nick Adams' nomination as the next United States Ambassador to Malaysia, highlighting his qualities and past achievements as a patriot, entrepreneur, author, speaker, and commentator.
Sentiment:Campaigning
Key Claims:
  • Nick Adams will be nominated as the next United States Ambassador to Malaysia.
  • Nick Adams is an incredible Patriot.
  • Nick Adams is a very successful entrepreneur.
  • Nick Adams' love of and devotion to the Great Country is an inspiration.
  • Nick Adams is a bestselling author.
  • Nick Adams is a speaker and commentator.
  • Nick Adams graduated from the University of Sydney.
  • Nick Adams has made it his life’s mission to extol the Virtues of American Greatness.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):0/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:0/10
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Summary:The United States informs Sri Lanka via a letter dated July 9, 2025, that it will impose a 30% tariff on all Sri Lankan products entering the US starting August 1, 2025. This action is stated as a response to a significant and persistent trade deficit caused by Sri Lanka's tariffs and trade barriers, which are deemed a major threat to the US economy and national security. The letter indicates that tariffs can be avoided if Sri Lankan companies manufacture products within the United States, and warns that any future Sri Lankan tariff increases will be added to the 30% US tariff.
Sentiment:Vindicative
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Sri Lanka.
  • Sri Lanka's tariffs and non-tariff policies are responsible for these trade deficits.
  • These trade deficits pose a major threat to the US Economy and National Security.
  • Starting August 1, 2025, the United States will implement a 30% tariff on all Sri Lankan products.
  • Goods transshipped to avoid tariffs will also be subject to higher tariffs.
  • Sri Lanka or Sri Lankan companies can avoid these tariffs by manufacturing products within the United States.
  • Any tariffs raised by Sri Lanka will be added on top of the 30% US tariff.
  • The United States seeks a balanced and fair trade relationship.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):3/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:2/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:4/10
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Summary:A letter from the White House to the President of Brazil addresses Brazil's treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro as an "international disgrace" and a "Witch Hunt." It accuses Brazil of attacking free elections and free speech through unlawful censorship orders against U.S. social media platforms, including threats of fines and eviction from the Brazilian social media market. The letter announces a 50% tariff on all Brazilian products, effective August 1, 2025, due to these actions and long-standing unfair trade practices. It also offers the alternative of no tariffs if Brazil or Brazilian companies choose to build or manufacture products within the United States.
Sentiment:Directive and Punitive
Key Claims:
  • Brazil's treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro is an international disgrace and a "Witch Hunt" that should end immediately.
  • Brazil has engaged in "insidious attacks on Free Elections" and "fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans."
  • The Brazilian Supreme Court has issued "SECRET and UNLAWFUL Censorship Orders to U.S. Social Media platforms."
  • These censorship orders threaten U.S. social media platforms with "Millions of Dollars in Fines and Eviction from the Brazilian Social Media market."
  • The United States will charge Brazil a Tariff of 50% on all Brazilian products starting August 1, 2025.
  • Goods transshipped to evade the 50% Tariff will be subject to a higher Tariff.
  • The trade relationship with Brazil has been unfair due to Brazil's Tariff, and Non-Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers.
  • The 50% tariff is less than what is needed for a "Level Playing Field" in trade.
  • Tariffs can be avoided if Brazil or companies within Brazil choose to build or manufacture products within the United States, with approvals expedited in a matter of weeks.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):8/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:5/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:8/10
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Summary:A letter from the White House, dated July 9, 2025, to the Prime Minister of Iraq, Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani, outlines a new U.S. trade policy imposing a 30% tariff on all Iraqi products starting August 1, 2025. The letter states this measure is due to persistent trade deficits, warns against retaliatory tariffs, and asserts that the deficit poses a threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Iraq.
  • The U.S. will impose a 30% tariff on all Iraqi products starting August 1, 2025.
  • The 30% tariff is separate from all sectoral tariffs.
  • Goods transshipped to evade a higher tariff will be subject to the 30% tariff.
  • The 30% tariff is far less than what is needed to eliminate the trade deficit.
  • If Iraq raises its tariffs, the U.S. will add that amount to the 30% charge.
  • Iraq's tariffs, non-tariff policies, and trade barriers have caused unsustainable trade deficits against the United States.
  • The trade deficit is a major threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):5/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:6/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:5/10
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Summary:The White House informs Bosnia and Herzegovina that due to a persistent trade deficit, the United States will impose a 30% tariff on all Bosnian products entering the U.S. starting August 1, 2025. The letter states that if Bosnia and Herzegovina raises its tariffs, that increase will be added to the U.S.'s 30% charge, and that the trade deficit is a threat to U.S. economy and national security. It offers an exemption from the tariff if Bosnian companies manufacture products within the United States.
Sentiment:Ultimatum
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant, long-term, and persistent Trade Deficit with Bosnia and Herzegovina.
  • The United States seeks a more balanced and fair trading relationship.
  • Starting August 1, 2025, the U.S. will charge Bosnia and Herzegovina a Tariff of 30% on all products sent into the United States.
  • Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to higher tariffs.
  • The 30% tariff is less than what is needed to eliminate the Trade Deficit disparity.
  • There will be no Tariff if Bosnia and Herzegovina, or companies within Bosnia and Herzegovina, decide to build or manufacture products within the United States.
  • If Bosnia and Herzegovina decides to raise its Tariffs, that amount will be added onto the 30% tariff charged by the U.S.
  • The unsustainable Trade Deficits against the United States are a major threat to the U.S. Economy and National Security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):3/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:2/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:3/10
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Summary:A letter from The White House to the King of Thailand announces the United States' intention to impose a 36% tariff on all Thai products starting August 1, 2025, due to persistent and unreciprocal trade deficits. The letter states that goods transshipped to evade this tariff will face higher tariffs, and indicates that no tariffs will apply if manufacturing occurs within the United States. It also warns that any retaliatory tariffs from Thailand will be added to the US tariff, characterizing the existing trade deficit as a threat to the US economy and national security.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Thailand.
  • The trade relationship between the US and Thailand has been unreciprocal due to Thailand's tariffs, non-tariff policies, and trade barriers.
  • Starting August 1, 2025, the United States will charge Thailand a 36% tariff on all Thai products.
  • Goods transshipped to evade the 36% tariff will be subject to a higher tariff.
  • There will be no tariff if Thailand, or companies within Thailand, decide to build or manufacture product within the United States.
  • If Thailand raises its tariffs, that amount will be added to the 36% US tariff.
  • The unsustainable trade deficits with Thailand are a major threat to the US Economy and National Security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):8/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:6/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:7/10
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Summary:The United States informs Serbia of new 35% tariffs on all Serbian products starting August 1, 2025, citing persistent trade deficits caused by Serbian trade barriers and labeling these deficits a threat to US economy and national security, while offering an exemption for products manufactured in the US and warning of increased tariffs if Serbia retaliates.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
  • The United States experiences a significant and persistent trade deficit with Serbia.
  • Serbia's tariffs, non-tariff policies, and trade barriers cause this deficit.
  • The United States will implement a 35% tariff on all Serbian products imported into the US starting August 1, 2025.
  • Goods transshipped to avoid tariffs will be subject to the higher tariff rate.
  • Serbian companies manufacturing products within the United States will not face these tariffs.
  • If Serbia raises its tariffs, the US will add an equivalent amount to its existing 35% tariff.
  • The trade deficit with Serbia poses a major threat to the US economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):3/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:2/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:3/10
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Summary:The US government, through a letter from the White House dated July 7, 2025, informs Kazakhstan's President that due to persistent, non-reciprocal trade deficits attributed to Kazakhstan's trade barriers, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all Kazakh products entering the United States starting August 1, 2025. The letter states that this deficit poses a major threat to the US economy and national security, while offering an exemption from tariffs if products are manufactured within the United States. It also warns of increased tariffs if Kazakhstan raises its own tariffs.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Kazakhstan, attributed to Kazakhstan's tariffs and non-tariff barriers.
  • The trade relationship between the US and Kazakhstan has been non-reciprocal.
  • Starting August 1, 2025, the US will implement a 25% tariff on all Kazakh products imported into the United States.
  • Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to an equivalent higher tariff.
  • The 25% tariff is stated to be insufficient to fully eliminate the existing trade deficit disparity.
  • Tariffs will not be applied to products if Kazakhstan or Kazakh companies choose to build or manufacture products within the United States.
  • If Kazakhstan raises its tariffs, the US will add that amount to the existing 25% tariff.
  • The current unsustainable trade deficits are deemed a major threat to the US economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):6/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:3/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:7/10
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Summary:A letter from the White House to the President of Korea announces new trade policies, effective August 1, 2025, to address a U.S. trade deficit. The policy includes a 25% tariff on all Korean products entering the United States, with a provision for higher tariffs on goods transshipped to evade the tariff. It also states that Korean companies manufacturing products within the U.S. will not face these tariffs, and warns of additional U.S. tariffs if Korea raises its own tariffs in response. The letter asserts that the trade deficit poses a threat to U.S. economy and national security.
Sentiment:Protectionist
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Korea due to Korea's tariffs and non-tariff policies and trade barriers.
  • Starting August 1, 2025, the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on all Korean products imported into the United States, separate from other sectoral tariffs.
  • Goods transshipped to evade the 25% tariff will be subject to a higher tariff.
  • Korean companies that build or manufacture products within the United States will not be subject to these tariffs.
  • If Korea raises its tariffs, the U.S. will add that increase to its existing 25% tariff.
  • The trade deficit is identified as a major threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):8/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:3/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:8/10
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Summary:The post declares that Donald Trump's past positions and statements are correct.
Sentiment:Triumphant
Key Claims:
  • Donald Trump's past positions and statements are correct in all aspects.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):0/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:0/10