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Summary:The White House informs the President of the Philippines that, effective August 1, 2025, the United States will impose a 20% tariff on all Philippine products due to persistent trade deficits and non-reciprocal trade policies, further stating that if the Philippines raises its tariffs, the US will add an additional 20% to its own charges, while also inviting the Philippines to increase its manufacturing within the US.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
- The United States and the Philippines have a strong, committed trading relationship.
- The United States has a significant, long-term, and persistent Trade Deficit with the Philippines.
- The trade deficit is caused by the Philippines' Tariff and Non-Tariff Policies and Trade Barriers.
- The trade relationship between the US and the Philippines is 'far from Reciprocal'.
- Starting August 1, 2025, the US will charge a 20% tariff on all Philippine products imported into the United States.
- Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to the higher tariff.
- The 20% tariff is presented as 'far less than what is needed to eliminate the Trade Deficit disparity'.
- If the Philippines raises its tariffs, the US will add an additional 20% onto its existing charge.
- The US invites the Philippines to participate in the 'extraordinary Economy of the United States' and build or manufacture products within the US.
- The US will expedite approvals for companies deciding to build or manufacture products within the United States.
- The trade deficits are 'unsustainable' and pose a 'major threat to our Economy and, indeed, our National Security!'
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):7/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:1/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:7/10
Summary:The post displays a letter from the White House, dated July 7, 2025, to the Prime Minister of Cambodia, Hun Manet. The letter announces the imposition of a 36% tariff on all Cambodian products imported into the United States, effective August 1, 2025. This measure is attributed to a significant and persistent trade deficit with Cambodia, caused by Cambodia's tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers, which is deemed a major threat to the US economy and national security. The letter also states that companies building or manufacturing in the United States would be exempt from tariffs and warns of additional tariffs if Cambodia raises its own trade barriers.
Sentiment:Protectionist
Key Claims:
- The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Cambodia.
- Cambodia's tariffs and non-tariff policies and trade barriers are responsible for the trade deficit, making the relationship unreciprocal.
- Effective August 1, 2025, the United States will implement a 36% tariff on all Cambodian products.
- Goods transshipped to avoid the tariff will incur a higher tariff rate.
- The 36% tariff is considered less than what is necessary to eliminate the trade deficit disparity.
- Cambodian companies establishing manufacturing or building facilities within the United States will not be subject to these tariffs.
- Any increase in Cambodia's tariffs will result in an equivalent increase added to the United States' 36% tariff.
- The trade deficit with Cambodia poses a major threat to the United States' economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):4/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:2/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:5/10
Summary:The White House issues a letter to Bangladesh, dated July 7, 2025, announcing a 35% tariff on all Bangladeshi products entering the United States, effective August 1, 2025, due to persistent trade deficits and non-reciprocal trade policies, which are described as a major threat to the U.S. economy and national security. The letter also states that if Bangladesh raises its tariffs, that amount will be added to the 35% U.S. tariff, while offering the alternative for Bangladeshi companies to manufacture products within the U.S. to avoid tariffs.
Sentiment:Vindicative
Key Claims:
- The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Bangladesh.
- Bangladesh's tariff, non-tariff policies, and trade barriers are responsible for these deficits.
- The trade relationship between the U.S. and Bangladesh has not been reciprocal.
- Effective August 1, 2025, the U.S. will impose a 35% tariff on all Bangladeshi products.
- Goods transshipped to evade the U.S. tariff will be subject to the same or higher tariff.
- The 35% tariff is considered less than what is needed to fully eliminate the trade deficit disparity.
- Bangladeshi companies can avoid these tariffs by manufacturing products within the United States.
- The U.S. will expedite approvals for Bangladeshi companies choosing to manufacture in the U.S.
- If Bangladesh raises its own tariffs, the U.S. will add that increase onto its existing 35% tariff.
- The unsustainable trade deficits are a major threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):3/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:5/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:4/10
Summary:The White House communicates to the President of Indonesia the United States' decision to impose a 32% tariff on all Indonesian products starting August 1, 2025, citing persistent trade deficits caused by Indonesian tariffs and trade barriers, and warns of increased tariffs if Indonesia retaliates.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
- The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Indonesia, caused by Indonesia's tariffs, policies, and trade barriers.
- The United States will implement a 32% tariff on all Indonesian products starting August 1, 2025.
- Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to higher tariffs.
- The 32% tariff is less than what is needed to eliminate the trade deficit.
- No tariffs will be applied if Indonesian companies build or manufacture products within the United States.
- Should Indonesia raise its tariffs, an additional tariff equivalent to Indonesia's increase will be added to the U.S.'s 32% tariff.
- Unsustainable trade deficits are a major threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):5/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:5/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:5/10
Summary:A letter from The White House to Željka Cvijanović, dated July 7, 2025, announces that the United States will implement a 30% tariff on all products from Bosnia and Herzegovina starting August 1, 2025, due to an unsustainable trade deficit and non-reciprocal trade relationship, with higher tariffs for transshipped goods and additional tariffs if Bosnia and Herzegovina raises its own tariffs, stating the deficit threatens U.S. economy and national security.
Sentiment:Demanding
Key Claims:
- The United States has a significant and unsustainable Trade Deficit with Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- The trade relationship between the U.S. and Bosnia and Herzegovina is not reciprocal.
- The U.S. will charge a 30% tariff on all products from Bosnia and Herzegovina starting August 1, 2025.
- Goods transshipped to evade the tariff will be subject to a higher tariff.
- The U.S. invites Bosnia and Herzegovina to participate in the U.S. economy, the 'Number One Market in the World'.
- The U.S. will ensure quick approvals for companies that build or manufacture products within the United States.
- If Bosnia and Herzegovina decides to raise its tariffs, an additional amount will be added to the U.S. 30% tariff.
- The unsustainable Trade Deficits against the United States are a major threat to the U.S. Economy and National Security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):3/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:2/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10
Summary:The White House has sent a letter to the President of Tunisia stating that the United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Tunisia, which is deemed a major threat to the U.S. economy and national security. To address this, the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on all Tunisian products imported into the United States starting August 1, 2025. The letter invites Tunisia to discuss their trade relationship and indicates that no tariffs will be applied if Tunisia facilitates U.S. manufacturing within its borders. It also warns that any increase in Tunisian tariffs will result in an additional corresponding tariff from the U.S.
Sentiment:Directive/Corrective
Key Claims:
- The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Tunisia.
- This trade deficit is a major threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
- The U.S. invites Tunisia to discuss their trading relationship.
- Starting August 1, 2025, the U.S. will charge a 25% tariff on all Tunisian products entering the United States.
- The 25% tariff is considered less than what is needed to eliminate the trade deficit disparity.
- No tariff will be charged if Tunisia allows products to be built or manufactured within the United States.
- If Tunisia raises its tariffs, the U.S. will add that amount to its existing 25% tariff.
- The tariffs are intended to correct years of unsustainable trade deficits caused by Tunisia's tariffs and non-tariff barriers.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):2/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:1/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:1/10
Summary:The White House announces a 40% tariff on all Burmese products entering the United States starting August 1, 2025, directed at Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Administrative Council of Myanmar, citing persistent trade deficits and barriers as a major threat to the US economy and national security, with the possibility of no tariffs if manufacturing shifts to the US, and a warning of increased tariffs if Myanmar retaliates.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
- The United States will impose a 40% tariff on all products from Myanmar entering the US, effective August 1, 2025.
- This tariff is a response to a significant and persistent trade deficit caused by Myanmar's tariffs, non-tariff policies, and trade barriers.
- The trade deficit with Myanmar is considered a major threat to the US Economy and National Security.
- No tariffs will be applied if Myanmar or companies within Myanmar choose to build or manufacture products within the United States.
- Any tariffs Myanmar decides to impose will be added onto the 40% tariff charged by the United States.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):2/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:3/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10
Summary:The White House informs the President of Laos that due to persistent trade deficits and barriers, the U.S. will implement a 40% tariff on all Laotian products entering the U.S. starting August 1, 2025. This tariff can be avoided if products are manufactured within the U.S., and further tariffs will be imposed if Laos raises its tariffs. The U.S. states the trade deficit is a major threat to its economy and national security.
Sentiment:Threatening
Key Claims:
- The U.S. has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Laos.
- This deficit is attributed to Laos's Tariff and Non-Tariff Policies and Trade Barriers.
- The U.S. will impose a 40% tariff on all Laotian products starting August 1, 2025.
- This tariff can be avoided if Laos-based companies manufacture products within the United States.
- Any retaliatory tariffs from Laos will result in additional tariffs from the U.S. added to the existing 40%.
- The trade deficit with Laos is a major threat to the U.S. Economy and National Security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):6/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:4/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:7/10
Summary:A letter from the White House to the President of South Africa states that due to persistent trade deficits caused by South Africa's trade policies, the United States will implement a 30% tariff on all South African products starting August 1, 2025. The letter indicates that goods transshipped to evade this tariff will face higher charges and that no tariff will be imposed if South African companies manufacture products within the United States. It also states that any increase in South Africa's tariffs will result in an equivalent addition to the US tariff, characterizing the existing trade deficit as a major threat to the US economy and national security.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
- The United States has a significant and persistent Trade Deficit with South Africa.
- South Africa's Tariff, and Non Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers are responsible for these deficits.
- Starting August 1, 2025, the United States will implement a 30% tariff on all South African products imported into the US.
- Goods transshipped to evade this tariff will be subject to a higher tariff.
- The 30% tariff is far less than what is needed to eliminate the Trade Deficit disparity.
- No tariff will be imposed if South African companies build or manufacture products within the United States.
- Any increase in South Africa's tariffs will result in an equivalent addition to the 30% US tariff.
- The unsustainable Trade Deficits against the United States pose a major threat to the US Economy and National Security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):6/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:3/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:5/10
Summary:The US government, through a letter from the White House dated July 7, 2025, informs Kazakhstan's President that due to persistent, non-reciprocal trade deficits attributed to Kazakhstan's trade barriers, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all Kazakh products entering the United States starting August 1, 2025. The letter states that this deficit poses a major threat to the US economy and national security, while offering an exemption from tariffs if products are manufactured within the United States. It also warns of increased tariffs if Kazakhstan raises its own tariffs.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
- The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Kazakhstan, attributed to Kazakhstan's tariffs and non-tariff barriers.
- The trade relationship between the US and Kazakhstan has been non-reciprocal.
- Starting August 1, 2025, the US will implement a 25% tariff on all Kazakh products imported into the United States.
- Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to an equivalent higher tariff.
- The 25% tariff is stated to be insufficient to fully eliminate the existing trade deficit disparity.
- Tariffs will not be applied to products if Kazakhstan or Kazakh companies choose to build or manufacture products within the United States.
- If Kazakhstan raises its tariffs, the US will add that amount to the existing 25% tariff.
- The current unsustainable trade deficits are deemed a major threat to the US economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):6/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:3/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:7/10