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Summary:The White House has sent a letter to the President of Tunisia stating that the United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Tunisia, which is deemed a major threat to the U.S. economy and national security. To address this, the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on all Tunisian products imported into the United States starting August 1, 2025. The letter invites Tunisia to discuss their trade relationship and indicates that no tariffs will be applied if Tunisia facilitates U.S. manufacturing within its borders. It also warns that any increase in Tunisian tariffs will result in an additional corresponding tariff from the U.S.
Sentiment:Directive/Corrective
Key Claims:
- The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Tunisia.
- This trade deficit is a major threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
- The U.S. invites Tunisia to discuss their trading relationship.
- Starting August 1, 2025, the U.S. will charge a 25% tariff on all Tunisian products entering the United States.
- The 25% tariff is considered less than what is needed to eliminate the trade deficit disparity.
- No tariff will be charged if Tunisia allows products to be built or manufactured within the United States.
- If Tunisia raises its tariffs, the U.S. will add that amount to its existing 25% tariff.
- The tariffs are intended to correct years of unsustainable trade deficits caused by Tunisia's tariffs and non-tariff barriers.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):2/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:1/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:1/10
Summary:The White House announces a 40% tariff on all Burmese products entering the United States starting August 1, 2025, directed at Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Administrative Council of Myanmar, citing persistent trade deficits and barriers as a major threat to the US economy and national security, with the possibility of no tariffs if manufacturing shifts to the US, and a warning of increased tariffs if Myanmar retaliates.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
- The United States will impose a 40% tariff on all products from Myanmar entering the US, effective August 1, 2025.
- This tariff is a response to a significant and persistent trade deficit caused by Myanmar's tariffs, non-tariff policies, and trade barriers.
- The trade deficit with Myanmar is considered a major threat to the US Economy and National Security.
- No tariffs will be applied if Myanmar or companies within Myanmar choose to build or manufacture products within the United States.
- Any tariffs Myanmar decides to impose will be added onto the 40% tariff charged by the United States.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):2/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:3/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10
Summary:The White House informs the President of Laos that due to persistent trade deficits and barriers, the U.S. will implement a 40% tariff on all Laotian products entering the U.S. starting August 1, 2025. This tariff can be avoided if products are manufactured within the U.S., and further tariffs will be imposed if Laos raises its tariffs. The U.S. states the trade deficit is a major threat to its economy and national security.
Sentiment:Threatening
Key Claims:
- The U.S. has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Laos.
- This deficit is attributed to Laos's Tariff and Non-Tariff Policies and Trade Barriers.
- The U.S. will impose a 40% tariff on all Laotian products starting August 1, 2025.
- This tariff can be avoided if Laos-based companies manufacture products within the United States.
- Any retaliatory tariffs from Laos will result in additional tariffs from the U.S. added to the existing 40%.
- The trade deficit with Laos is a major threat to the U.S. Economy and National Security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):6/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:4/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:7/10
Summary:A letter from the White House to the President of South Africa states that due to persistent trade deficits caused by South Africa's trade policies, the United States will implement a 30% tariff on all South African products starting August 1, 2025. The letter indicates that goods transshipped to evade this tariff will face higher charges and that no tariff will be imposed if South African companies manufacture products within the United States. It also states that any increase in South Africa's tariffs will result in an equivalent addition to the US tariff, characterizing the existing trade deficit as a major threat to the US economy and national security.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
- The United States has a significant and persistent Trade Deficit with South Africa.
- South Africa's Tariff, and Non Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers are responsible for these deficits.
- Starting August 1, 2025, the United States will implement a 30% tariff on all South African products imported into the US.
- Goods transshipped to evade this tariff will be subject to a higher tariff.
- The 30% tariff is far less than what is needed to eliminate the Trade Deficit disparity.
- No tariff will be imposed if South African companies build or manufacture products within the United States.
- Any increase in South Africa's tariffs will result in an equivalent addition to the 30% US tariff.
- The unsustainable Trade Deficits against the United States pose a major threat to the US Economy and National Security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):6/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:3/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:5/10
Summary:The US government, through a letter from the White House dated July 7, 2025, informs Kazakhstan's President that due to persistent, non-reciprocal trade deficits attributed to Kazakhstan's trade barriers, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all Kazakh products entering the United States starting August 1, 2025. The letter states that this deficit poses a major threat to the US economy and national security, while offering an exemption from tariffs if products are manufactured within the United States. It also warns of increased tariffs if Kazakhstan raises its own tariffs.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
- The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Kazakhstan, attributed to Kazakhstan's tariffs and non-tariff barriers.
- The trade relationship between the US and Kazakhstan has been non-reciprocal.
- Starting August 1, 2025, the US will implement a 25% tariff on all Kazakh products imported into the United States.
- Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to an equivalent higher tariff.
- The 25% tariff is stated to be insufficient to fully eliminate the existing trade deficit disparity.
- Tariffs will not be applied to products if Kazakhstan or Kazakh companies choose to build or manufacture products within the United States.
- If Kazakhstan raises its tariffs, the US will add that amount to the existing 25% tariff.
- The current unsustainable trade deficits are deemed a major threat to the US economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):6/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:3/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:7/10
Summary:The United States government informs the Sultan of Malaysia of an impending 25% tariff on all Malaysian products imported into the U.S., effective August 1, 2025. This action is taken to correct persistent, unsustainable trade deficits caused by Malaysia's tariffs and trade barriers, which the U.S. considers a major threat to its economy and national security. The U.S. indicates that the 25% tariff is a starting point and warns against retaliatory tariff increases by Malaysia.
Sentiment:Vindicative
Key Claims:
- The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Malaysia.
- This deficit is attributed to Malaysia's Tariff, Non Tariff, Policies, and Trade Barriers.
- Starting August 1, 2025, the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on all Malaysian products imported into the United States.
- Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to those higher tariffs.
- The 25% tariff is not sufficient to eliminate the existing trade deficit disparity.
- There will be no tariff if Malaysia or companies within Malaysia build or manufacture products within the United States, with the U.S. promising quick approval processes.
- Any decision by Malaysia to raise its tariffs will result in that increase being added to the 25% U.S. tariff.
- The unsustainable trade deficits are a major threat to the U.S. Economy and National Security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):7/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:5/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:7/10
Summary:The United States communicates to Malaysia its intent to impose a 25% tariff on all Malaysian products imported into the U.S. starting August 1, 2025. This action is stated as necessary to address a significant and persistent trade deficit attributed to Malaysia's tariff and non-tariff policies, which the U.S. views as a major threat to its economy and national security. The U.S. also indicates that Malaysian companies can avoid these tariffs by manufacturing products within the United States, and warns that any new tariffs imposed by Malaysia will be added to the U.S.'s tariffs.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
- The United States has a significant and persistent Trade Deficit with Malaysia.
- Malaysia's Tariff and Non Tariff Policies and Trade Barriers are identified as the cause of this deficit.
- The trade deficit is a "major threat" to the U.S. economy and national security.
- Starting August 1, 2025, the U.S. will implement a 25% tariff on all Malaysian products imported into the United States.
- Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to the higher tariff.
- The 25% tariff is less than what is needed to eliminate the trade deficit.
- There will be no U.S. tariff if Malaysian companies manufacture products within the United States.
- Any new tariffs imposed by Malaysia will be added onto the 25% U.S. tariff.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):8/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:3/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:8/10
Summary:The White House has informed Japan's Prime Minister that due to an unsustainable and persistent trade deficit caused by Japan's trade policies, the United States will impose a 25% tariff on all Japanese products entering the U.S. starting August 1, 2025. The letter states that this tariff can be avoided if Japanese companies establish manufacturing within the United States, and warns that any retaliatory tariffs from Japan will be matched by an additional increase to the U.S. tariff.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
- The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Japan.
- Japan's tariffs, non-tariff policies, and trade barriers are causing this unsustainable trade deficit.
- The trade deficit is a major threat to the U.S. Economy and National Security.
- Effective August 1, 2025, the U.S. will charge a 25% tariff on all Japanese products.
- Goods transshipped to evade tariffs will be subject to a higher tariff.
- The 25% tariff is less than what is needed to eliminate the trade deficit disparity.
- There will be no tariff if Japan or Japanese companies build or manufacture products within the United States.
- The U.S. will facilitate approvals for manufacturing in a matter of weeks.
- If Japan raises its own tariffs, that increase will be added to the U.S.'s 25% tariff.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):9/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:3/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:9/10
Summary:A specified bill will establish the United States as the strongest nation globally in terms of border security, economic prosperity, and military power, thereby ensuring its continued global preeminence.
Sentiment:Campaigning
Key Claims:
- The One Big Beautiful Bill will deliver the strongest border on Earth.
- The One Big Beautiful Bill will deliver the strongest economy on Earth.
- The One Big Beautiful Bill will deliver the strongest military on Earth.
- The One Big Beautiful Bill will ensure the United States of America will remain the strongest country anywhere on this beautiful planet of ours.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):1/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:1/10
Summary:The post announces the House Republicans' passage of the "ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ACT," emphasizing party unity and national prosperity. It invites members of Congress to a White House signing celebration for the bill, positioning it as the dawn of a new "Golden Age" for the United States, making its citizens "Richer, Safer, and Prouder."
Sentiment:Triumphant
Key Claims:
- Republicans in the House of Representatives have passed the "ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ACT."
- The Republican Party is united like never before.
- The Country is "HOT."
- A Signing Celebration will occur at the White House tomorrow at 4 P.M. EST.
- All Congressmen/women and Senators are invited to the celebration.
- The celebration marks the Nation’s Independence and the beginning of a new "Golden Age."
- The people of the United States of America will become Richer, Safer, and Prouder than ever before.
- Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and Republican Members of Congress are thanked for delivering on promises.
- Together, things previously unimagined possible are achievable.
- They will continue working and winning.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):3/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10