The Stable Genius Report

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Summary:The post presents a narrative that families across the United States could receive thousands in additional take-home pay through savings generated by President Donald Trump's 'big beautiful bill,' detailed in a state-by-state breakdown published by Fox News and accessible via a White House website.
Sentiment:Campaigning
Key Claims:
  • People in each state could pocket money under Trump's 'big beautiful bill' savings.
  • Families could see thousands in additional take-home pay from Trump's 'big, beautiful bill'.
  • The 'big beautiful bill' will deliver the largest tax cut in history, higher wages, and higher take-home pay.
  • A state-by-state breakdown of these savings is available.
  • The information is presented as originating from 'The White House' under 'President Donald J. Trump'.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):7/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:8/10
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Summary:The White House announces its intent to impose a 30% tariff on all European Union products imported into the United States starting August 1, 2025. This action is presented as a response to persistent trade deficits and non-reciprocal trade practices with the EU, which are deemed a threat to U.S. economy and national security. The letter indicates that if the EU retaliates with its own tariffs, those amounts will be added on top of the existing 30% U.S. tariff, while offering tariff exemptions for EU companies that manufacture within the United States.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a long-term, large, and persistent trade deficit with the European Union.
  • The trade deficit is caused by European Union tariffs and non-tariff barriers, making the relationship non-reciprocal.
  • Effective August 1, 2025, the U.S. will charge a 30% tariff on all European Union products sent into the United States.
  • Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to those higher tariffs.
  • No tariffs will apply if European Union companies decide to build or manufacture products within the United States.
  • The U.S. will facilitate quick approvals for European Union companies manufacturing within the United States.
  • The European Union is expected to allow complete, open market access to the United States without U.S. tariffs.
  • If the European Union retaliates by raising its tariffs, that amount will be added onto the 30% U.S. tariff.
  • These tariffs are necessary to correct the many years of European Union Tariff and Non-Tariff Policies and Trade Barriers.
  • The large and unsustainable trade deficits against the United States are a major threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):9/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:5/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:9/10
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Summary:A letter from the White House to the President of Mexico states that the United States will impose a 30% tariff on all Mexican products starting August 1, 2025. This action is attributed to Mexico's failure to stop drug cartels and the flow of fentanyl into the US, and to address unsustainable trade deficits. The letter specifies that transshipped goods will also be subject to the tariff and that if Mexico raises its tariffs, the US will add that increase to its 30% charge. It also notes that companies can avoid tariffs by manufacturing products within the United States.
Sentiment:Threatening
Key Claims:
  • The United States will charge a 30% tariff on all Mexican products starting August 1, 2025.
  • The tariffs are being imposed due to Mexico's failure to stop drug cartels and the flow of fentanyl into the United States.
  • Cartels are attempting to turn North America into a 'Narco-Trafficking Playground'.
  • Goods transshipped through Mexico to evade higher tariffs will be subject to the higher tariff.
  • If Mexico decides to raise its tariffs, the US will add that increase to its 30% charge.
  • Companies can avoid tariffs by building or manufacturing products within the United States.
  • The flow of fentanyl is not the only challenge; unsustainable trade deficits are a major threat to the US economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):9/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:8/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:9/10
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Summary:The United States informs Sri Lanka via a letter dated July 9, 2025, that it will impose a 30% tariff on all Sri Lankan products entering the US starting August 1, 2025. This action is stated as a response to a significant and persistent trade deficit caused by Sri Lanka's tariffs and trade barriers, which are deemed a major threat to the US economy and national security. The letter indicates that tariffs can be avoided if Sri Lankan companies manufacture products within the United States, and warns that any future Sri Lankan tariff increases will be added to the 30% US tariff.
Sentiment:Vindicative
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Sri Lanka.
  • Sri Lanka's tariffs and non-tariff policies are responsible for these trade deficits.
  • These trade deficits pose a major threat to the US Economy and National Security.
  • Starting August 1, 2025, the United States will implement a 30% tariff on all Sri Lankan products.
  • Goods transshipped to avoid tariffs will also be subject to higher tariffs.
  • Sri Lanka or Sri Lankan companies can avoid these tariffs by manufacturing products within the United States.
  • Any tariffs raised by Sri Lanka will be added on top of the 30% US tariff.
  • The United States seeks a balanced and fair trade relationship.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):3/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:2/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:4/10
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Summary:A letter from the White House to the President of Brazil addresses Brazil's treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro as an "international disgrace" and a "Witch Hunt." It accuses Brazil of attacking free elections and free speech through unlawful censorship orders against U.S. social media platforms, including threats of fines and eviction from the Brazilian social media market. The letter announces a 50% tariff on all Brazilian products, effective August 1, 2025, due to these actions and long-standing unfair trade practices. It also offers the alternative of no tariffs if Brazil or Brazilian companies choose to build or manufacture products within the United States.
Sentiment:Directive and Punitive
Key Claims:
  • Brazil's treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro is an international disgrace and a "Witch Hunt" that should end immediately.
  • Brazil has engaged in "insidious attacks on Free Elections" and "fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans."
  • The Brazilian Supreme Court has issued "SECRET and UNLAWFUL Censorship Orders to U.S. Social Media platforms."
  • These censorship orders threaten U.S. social media platforms with "Millions of Dollars in Fines and Eviction from the Brazilian Social Media market."
  • The United States will charge Brazil a Tariff of 50% on all Brazilian products starting August 1, 2025.
  • Goods transshipped to evade the 50% Tariff will be subject to a higher Tariff.
  • The trade relationship with Brazil has been unfair due to Brazil's Tariff, and Non-Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers.
  • The 50% tariff is less than what is needed for a "Level Playing Field" in trade.
  • Tariffs can be avoided if Brazil or companies within Brazil choose to build or manufacture products within the United States, with approvals expedited in a matter of weeks.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):8/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:5/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:8/10
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Summary:The post, an image of a letter from The White House, states that the United States will impose a 30% tariff on all products from Sri Lanka starting August 1, 2025, to address a significant and persistent trade deficit, which is described as a threat to U.S. economy and national security. The letter offers an alternative for Sri Lankan companies to avoid these tariffs by building or manufacturing products within the United States.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Sri Lanka.
  • The trade deficit with Sri Lanka is described as unsustainable and a major threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
  • The trade relationship between the United States and Sri Lanka has not been reciprocal.
  • Starting August 1, 2025, the U.S. will charge Sri Lanka a 30% tariff on all Sri Lankan products sent into the United States.
  • Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will also be subject to the higher tariff.
  • The 30% tariff is presented as less than what is needed to eliminate the existing trade deficit.
  • Sri Lankan companies can avoid tariffs by deciding to build or manufacture products within the United States.
  • The U.S. will facilitate quick, professional, and routine approvals for Sri Lankan companies choosing to manufacture within the U.S.
  • If Sri Lanka raises its tariffs, the U.S. will add that amount on top of the 30% tariff already charged.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):5/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:6/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:4/10
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Summary:A letter from the White House, dated July 9, 2025, to the Prime Minister of Iraq, Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani, outlines a new U.S. trade policy imposing a 30% tariff on all Iraqi products starting August 1, 2025. The letter states this measure is due to persistent trade deficits, warns against retaliatory tariffs, and asserts that the deficit poses a threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Iraq.
  • The U.S. will impose a 30% tariff on all Iraqi products starting August 1, 2025.
  • The 30% tariff is separate from all sectoral tariffs.
  • Goods transshipped to evade a higher tariff will be subject to the 30% tariff.
  • The 30% tariff is far less than what is needed to eliminate the trade deficit.
  • If Iraq raises its tariffs, the U.S. will add that amount to the 30% charge.
  • Iraq's tariffs, non-tariff policies, and trade barriers have caused unsustainable trade deficits against the United States.
  • The trade deficit is a major threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):5/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:6/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:5/10
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Summary:A letter from the White House dated July 9, 2025, addresses the President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, stating the United States faces a significant trade deficit with Moldova. To correct this, the letter announces a 25% tariff on all Moldovan products imported into the US, effective August 1, 2025. It further states that if Moldova raises its own tariffs, an equivalent amount will be added to the 25% US tariff. The letter concludes that the unsustainable trade deficits are a major threat to the US economy and national security.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant trade deficit with Moldova due to non-tariff, policies, and trade barriers.
  • Beginning August 1, 2025, the US will implement a 25% tariff on all Moldovan products imported into the United States.
  • Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to higher tariff rates.
  • No tariff will be applied if Moldova or companies within Moldova decide to build or manufacture products within the United States.
  • If Moldova raises its tariffs, the additional amount will be added to the 25% tariff charged by the US.
  • The unsustainable trade deficits are a major threat to the US Economy and National Security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):3/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:2/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10
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Summary:A letter from the White House dated July 9, 2025, addressed to the Sultan of Brunei, outlines a new trade policy stating that the United States will implement a 25% tariff on all Bruneian products starting August 1, 2025, due to a significant and unsustainable trade deficit. The letter asserts that the US-Brunei trade relationship is unilateral and non-reciprocal, and offers an exception for products manufactured within the US by Bruneian companies. It further warns that any increase in Bruneian tariffs will result in additional US charges beyond the initial 25%. The US frames this deficit as a major threat to its economy and national security.
Sentiment:Demanding
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant and unsustainable trade deficit with Brunei.
  • The US-Brunei trade relationship is unilateral and far from reciprocal.
  • Starting August 1, 2025, the US will charge a 25% tariff on all Bruneian products imported into the United States.
  • Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to that higher tariff.
  • There will be no US tariff if Brunei, or companies within Brunei, decide to build or manufacture products within the United States.
  • If Brunei raises its tariffs, an additional amount will be added to the 25% US charge.
  • Brunei's tariffs, non-tariff policies, and trade barriers are causing unsustainable trade deficits.
  • The trade deficit is a major threat to the US Economy and National Security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):3/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:1/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10
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Summary:The White House informs the President of the Philippines that, effective August 1, 2025, the United States will impose a 20% tariff on all Philippine products due to persistent trade deficits and non-reciprocal trade policies, further stating that if the Philippines raises its tariffs, the US will add an additional 20% to its own charges, while also inviting the Philippines to increase its manufacturing within the US.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
  • The United States and the Philippines have a strong, committed trading relationship.
  • The United States has a significant, long-term, and persistent Trade Deficit with the Philippines.
  • The trade deficit is caused by the Philippines' Tariff and Non-Tariff Policies and Trade Barriers.
  • The trade relationship between the US and the Philippines is 'far from Reciprocal'.
  • Starting August 1, 2025, the US will charge a 20% tariff on all Philippine products imported into the United States.
  • Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to the higher tariff.
  • The 20% tariff is presented as 'far less than what is needed to eliminate the Trade Deficit disparity'.
  • If the Philippines raises its tariffs, the US will add an additional 20% onto its existing charge.
  • The US invites the Philippines to participate in the 'extraordinary Economy of the United States' and build or manufacture products within the US.
  • The US will expedite approvals for companies deciding to build or manufacture products within the United States.
  • The trade deficits are 'unsustainable' and pose a 'major threat to our Economy and, indeed, our National Security!'
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):7/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:1/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:7/10