The Stable Genius Report

Stay informed on the latest Truth Social posts from Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump) without the doomscrolling. Consider it a public service for your mental health. (Why?)

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Summary:The post announces that the House will soon vote on the GENIUS Act, a bill intended to establish America as the undisputed global leader in digital assets, surpassing competitors like China and Europe. It asserts that digital assets represent the future and calls for all Republicans to support the bill, framing this legislative effort as a key component of the 'Making America Great Again' agenda, with further legislation planned.
Sentiment:Campaigning
Key Claims:
  • The House will imminently vote on a significant bill related to digital assets.
  • This bill, known as the 'GENIUS Act,' is designed to make America the leading nation in digital assets globally.
  • America is currently lightyears ahead of China, Europe, and other nations in digital assets.
  • Digital assets represent the future of the economy.
  • All Republicans should vote in favor of this bill.
  • The legislation is an integral part of the 'Making America Great Again' platform.
  • Further legislation concerning digital assets will be pursued with both the Senate and the House.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):5/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:6/10
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Summary:The FBI obstructed an investigation into an alleged 2020 election plot involving China, a decision reportedly made to avoid contradicting Director Wray's testimony to Congress, as indicated by documents.
Sentiment:Critical
Key Claims:
  • The FBI blocked a probe into an alleged 2020 election plot by China.
  • The reason for blocking the probe was to prevent contradiction of Director Wray's testimony to Congress.
  • Documents substantiate these claims.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):1/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:2/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:1/10
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Summary:The post strongly criticizes Senator Thom Tillis, alleging his support for a significant tax increase, his failure to comprehend the necessity of a debt extension, and his detrimental stance on the North Carolina Tobacco Industry and support for costly, China-made windmills. It contrasts these points with the author's prior actions in North Carolina and outlines policy preferences for tax reductions, border security, a strong military, and economic benefits for farmers and manufacturers.
Sentiment:Critical
Key Claims:
  • Senator Thom Tillis supports a 68% tax increase.
  • Tillis does not understand the importance of a debt extension.
  • Republicans previously granted a debt extension to Democrats.
  • Democrat politicians will likely not reciprocate on a debt extension.
  • Tillis is willing to harm the North Carolina Tobacco Industry.
  • Tillis supports China-made windmills that are expensive and ruin the landscape.
  • These windmills produce the most expensive energy.
  • Joe Biden allowed North Carolina to 'DROWN' during floods.
  • The author brought North Carolina back from tragic floods and received an A+ rating.
  • Tillis was 'MISSING IN ACTION' during flood recovery efforts.
  • North Carolina will not allow Tillis to grandstand for re-election.
  • America desires reduced taxes, including no tax on tips, overtime, or social security.
  • America wants interest deductions on cars, border security, a strong military, and beneficial legislation for farmers, manufacturers, and employment.
  • Thom Tillis is making a significant mistake for America and North Carolina.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):2/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10
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Summary:Donald Trump's tariff strategy is portrayed as a clever and successful approach that could generate $400 billion in annual revenue for US taxpayers, improve business planning, employment, and financial markets, potentially outsmarting other nations.
Sentiment:Triumphant
Key Claims:
  • The Trump administration's strategy for trade deals involves an initial period of higher tariffs (30% on China, 10% on others) followed by a 12-month window for countries to lower non-tariff barriers and open their economies.
  • Extending the deadline and establishing permanently higher tariffs would be positive for business planning, employment, and financial markets.
  • This approach is expected to generate $400 billion in annual revenue for US taxpayers.
  • Trade partners will be satisfied with a 10% tariff rate.
  • The administration's trade strategy has potentially outsmarted all critics and opponents.
  • Prolonged elevated uncertainty carries greater downside risk for the economy, as depicted in the provided chart showing real GDP response to policy uncertainty shocks.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):9/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:8/10
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Summary:The post analyzes polling data on the foreign policy views of MAGA Republicans versus non-MAGA Republicans, specifically regarding support for U.S. military intervention if a NATO ally is attacked and if China attacks or blockades Taiwan.
Sentiment:Analytical
Key Claims:
  • MAGA Republicans show higher support than non-MAGA Republicans for U.S. military response if a NATO ally is attacked (69-71% vs. 61-63%).
  • A majority of MAGA Republicans (53% last year) held a favorable view of NATO.
  • If Trump decided to withdraw from NATO, 57% of MAGA Republicans would back the move, while 51% of non-MAGA Republicans would oppose it.
  • 56% of MAGA Republicans support increasing U.S. military presence in Eastern Europe to counter Russian aggression.
  • MAGA Republicans are more hawkish about China and Taiwan than non-MAGA Republicans.
  • 81% of MAGA supporters are concerned about a potential war between China and Taiwan (compared to 73% of non-MAGA Republicans).
  • 73% of MAGA Republicans support U.S. military action to defend Taiwan if China attacks or blockades it (compared to 62% of non-MAGA Republicans).
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):2/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:3/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10
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Summary:The post asserts that China is now able to continue purchasing oil from Iran and expresses a desire for China to also significantly increase its oil purchases from the U.S., with the author taking credit for this development.
Sentiment:Self-congratulatory / Advocating
Key Claims:
  • China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran.
  • The author hopes China will also purchase significant amounts of oil from the U.S.
  • The author claims responsibility for enabling these oil trade dynamics.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):3/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:2/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:3/10
Key Entities:
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Summary:The post expresses strong disapproval of 'Green Tax Credits' and renewable energy technologies like windmills, deeming them a 'scam,' inefficient, overly expensive, environmentally damaging, reliant on government subsidies, and predominantly manufactured in China. It advocates for reallocating funds currently used for these credits.
Sentiment:Critical
Key Claims:
  • Green Tax Credits are a 'giant SCAM'.
  • Money for green tax credits should be reallocated, including for reductions.
  • Windmills and similar technologies are the most expensive and inefficient energy sources.
  • Renewable energy is destroying environmental beauty.
  • Renewable energy is 10 times more costly than other energy sources.
  • Renewable energy requires massive government subsidies and should not need them.
  • Renewable energy components are almost exclusively made in China.
  • It is time to break away from this 'craziness'.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):5/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:1/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:6/10
Key Entities:
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Summary:The post displays an image of Donald Trump alongside a claim of 56% approval, citing Rasmussen Reports, framed as 'Proof That America Loves Trump' over a background depicting an American flag and visual elements suggesting global conflict and geopolitical tensions from an apparent news broadcast ticker.
Sentiment:Campaigning
Key Claims:
  • Donald Trump has a 56% approval rating.
  • The 56% approval rating is proof that America loves Trump.
  • The approval rating source is Rasmussen Reports.
  • Russia has warned the US regarding direct military aid to Israel.
  • China plans to help its citizens.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):2/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:7/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:3/10
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Summary:The post shares a news headline alleging that the FBI requested intelligence agencies to destroy information concerning an alleged plot by China to assist Joe Biden in the 2020 election.
Sentiment:Accusatory
Key Claims:
  • FBI asked spy agencies to destroy intelligence
  • Intelligence pertained to an alleged China plot
  • The alleged plot aimed to aid Joe Biden in the 2020 election
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):1/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:1/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:0/10
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Summary:The post expresses a highly positive sentiment regarding a 'China Deal,' indicating that the deal is beneficial.
Sentiment:Positive
Key Claims:
  • The China Deal is great.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):4/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:1/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:3/10
Key Entities: