The Stable Genius Report

Stay informed on the latest Truth Social posts from Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump) without the doomscrolling. Consider it a public service for your mental health. (Why?)

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Summary:The post strongly criticizes Senator Thom Tillis, alleging his support for a significant tax increase, his failure to comprehend the necessity of a debt extension, and his detrimental stance on the North Carolina Tobacco Industry and support for costly, China-made windmills. It contrasts these points with the author's prior actions in North Carolina and outlines policy preferences for tax reductions, border security, a strong military, and economic benefits for farmers and manufacturers.
Sentiment:Critical
Key Claims:
  • Senator Thom Tillis supports a 68% tax increase.
  • Tillis does not understand the importance of a debt extension.
  • Republicans previously granted a debt extension to Democrats.
  • Democrat politicians will likely not reciprocate on a debt extension.
  • Tillis is willing to harm the North Carolina Tobacco Industry.
  • Tillis supports China-made windmills that are expensive and ruin the landscape.
  • These windmills produce the most expensive energy.
  • Joe Biden allowed North Carolina to 'DROWN' during floods.
  • The author brought North Carolina back from tragic floods and received an A+ rating.
  • Tillis was 'MISSING IN ACTION' during flood recovery efforts.
  • North Carolina will not allow Tillis to grandstand for re-election.
  • America desires reduced taxes, including no tax on tips, overtime, or social security.
  • America wants interest deductions on cars, border security, a strong military, and beneficial legislation for farmers, manufacturers, and employment.
  • Thom Tillis is making a significant mistake for America and North Carolina.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):2/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10
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Summary:Donald Trump's tariff strategy is portrayed as a clever and successful approach that could generate $400 billion in annual revenue for US taxpayers, improve business planning, employment, and financial markets, potentially outsmarting other nations.
Sentiment:Triumphant
Key Claims:
  • The Trump administration's strategy for trade deals involves an initial period of higher tariffs (30% on China, 10% on others) followed by a 12-month window for countries to lower non-tariff barriers and open their economies.
  • Extending the deadline and establishing permanently higher tariffs would be positive for business planning, employment, and financial markets.
  • This approach is expected to generate $400 billion in annual revenue for US taxpayers.
  • Trade partners will be satisfied with a 10% tariff rate.
  • The administration's trade strategy has potentially outsmarted all critics and opponents.
  • Prolonged elevated uncertainty carries greater downside risk for the economy, as depicted in the provided chart showing real GDP response to policy uncertainty shocks.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):9/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:8/10
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Summary:The post analyzes polling data on the foreign policy views of MAGA Republicans versus non-MAGA Republicans, specifically regarding support for U.S. military intervention if a NATO ally is attacked and if China attacks or blockades Taiwan.
Sentiment:Analytical
Key Claims:
  • MAGA Republicans show higher support than non-MAGA Republicans for U.S. military response if a NATO ally is attacked (69-71% vs. 61-63%).
  • A majority of MAGA Republicans (53% last year) held a favorable view of NATO.
  • If Trump decided to withdraw from NATO, 57% of MAGA Republicans would back the move, while 51% of non-MAGA Republicans would oppose it.
  • 56% of MAGA Republicans support increasing U.S. military presence in Eastern Europe to counter Russian aggression.
  • MAGA Republicans are more hawkish about China and Taiwan than non-MAGA Republicans.
  • 81% of MAGA supporters are concerned about a potential war between China and Taiwan (compared to 73% of non-MAGA Republicans).
  • 73% of MAGA Republicans support U.S. military action to defend Taiwan if China attacks or blockades it (compared to 62% of non-MAGA Republicans).
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):2/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:3/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10
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Summary:The post asserts that China is now able to continue purchasing oil from Iran and expresses a desire for China to also significantly increase its oil purchases from the U.S., with the author taking credit for this development.
Sentiment:Self-congratulatory / Advocating
Key Claims:
  • China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran.
  • The author hopes China will also purchase significant amounts of oil from the U.S.
  • The author claims responsibility for enabling these oil trade dynamics.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):3/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:2/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:3/10
Key Entities:
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Summary:The post expresses strong disapproval of 'Green Tax Credits' and renewable energy technologies like windmills, deeming them a 'scam,' inefficient, overly expensive, environmentally damaging, reliant on government subsidies, and predominantly manufactured in China. It advocates for reallocating funds currently used for these credits.
Sentiment:Critical
Key Claims:
  • Green Tax Credits are a 'giant SCAM'.
  • Money for green tax credits should be reallocated, including for reductions.
  • Windmills and similar technologies are the most expensive and inefficient energy sources.
  • Renewable energy is destroying environmental beauty.
  • Renewable energy is 10 times more costly than other energy sources.
  • Renewable energy requires massive government subsidies and should not need them.
  • Renewable energy components are almost exclusively made in China.
  • It is time to break away from this 'craziness'.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):5/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:1/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:6/10
Key Entities:
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Summary:The post displays an image of Donald Trump alongside a claim of 56% approval, citing Rasmussen Reports, framed as 'Proof That America Loves Trump' over a background depicting an American flag and visual elements suggesting global conflict and geopolitical tensions from an apparent news broadcast ticker.
Sentiment:Campaigning
Key Claims:
  • Donald Trump has a 56% approval rating.
  • The 56% approval rating is proof that America loves Trump.
  • The approval rating source is Rasmussen Reports.
  • Russia has warned the US regarding direct military aid to Israel.
  • China plans to help its citizens.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):2/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:7/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:3/10
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Summary:The post shares a news headline alleging that the FBI requested intelligence agencies to destroy information concerning an alleged plot by China to assist Joe Biden in the 2020 election.
Sentiment:Accusatory
Key Claims:
  • FBI asked spy agencies to destroy intelligence
  • Intelligence pertained to an alleged China plot
  • The alleged plot aimed to aid Joe Biden in the 2020 election
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):1/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:1/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:0/10
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Summary:The post expresses a highly positive sentiment regarding a 'China Deal,' indicating that the deal is beneficial.
Sentiment:Positive
Key Claims:
  • The China Deal is great.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):4/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:1/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:3/10
Key Entities:
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Summary:Donald Trump and President Xi plan to collaborate on opening China to American trade, viewing it as a mutually beneficial outcome.
Sentiment:Positive
Key Claims:
  • President Xi and I will work closely together
  • China will open up to American Trade
  • This will be a great WIN for both countries
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):7/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:7/10
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Summary:A trade deal with China is complete, pending final approval from President Xi and Trump, outlining agreements on rare earth supply, educational exchange, and specific tariff percentages, while emphasizing a positive relationship.
Sentiment:Optimistic
Key Claims:
  • A trade deal with China is complete, subject to final approval.
  • China will supply magnets and necessary rare earths upfront.
  • The US will continue to allow Chinese students into its colleges and universities.
  • The US will receive 55% tariffs.
  • China will receive 10% tariffs.
  • The relationship between the US and China is excellent.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):8/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:8/10
Key Entities: