The Stable Genius Report

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Summary:Donald Trump is depicted as having successfully negotiated significant trade deals with Indonesia, Japan, and the Philippines, resulting in widespread investor enthusiasm, increased market confidence, and a surge in shares for automakers across Japan, South Korea, and Europe.
Sentiment:Triumphant
Key Claims:
  • Donald Trump reveals details of a "huge win" trade deal with Indonesia.
  • American businesses achieve a "huge win" through a landmark Indonesia trade deal that eliminates barriers.
  • Investors are cheering Donald Trump's "massive" trade deal with Japan.
  • Donald Trump announces a trade deal with the Philippines that includes a 19% tariff.
  • Markets gain more confidence as Donald Trump secures more trade deals.
  • Shares in Japanese, South Korean, and European automakers surge following a Tokyo trade deal.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):8/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:9/10
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Summary:Indonesia and Japan have fully opened their markets to the USA, which is expected to result in significant profits for American businesses.
Sentiment:Triumphant
Key Claims:
  • Indonesia has agreed to completely open its market to the USA for the first time.
  • This market opening represents a significant economic opportunity.
  • US businesses are expected to make a fortune from this development.
  • Japan has also similarly opened its market to the USA.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):6/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:5/10
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Summary:A deal beneficial to all parties was concluded with Indonesia, following direct negotiations with their highly respected President, with further details to be disclosed.
Sentiment:Triumphant
Key Claims:
  • A great deal was made with Indonesia.
  • The deal is beneficial for everybody.
  • The deal was recently concluded.
  • The author of the post dealt directly with Indonesia's President.
  • Indonesia's President is highly respected.
  • Further details regarding the deal will be provided.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):1/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:1/10
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Summary:The White House communicates to the President of Indonesia the United States' decision to impose a 32% tariff on all Indonesian products starting August 1, 2025, citing persistent trade deficits caused by Indonesian tariffs and trade barriers, and warns of increased tariffs if Indonesia retaliates.
Sentiment:Directive
Key Claims:
  • The United States has a significant and persistent trade deficit with Indonesia, caused by Indonesia's tariffs, policies, and trade barriers.
  • The United States will implement a 32% tariff on all Indonesian products starting August 1, 2025.
  • Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to higher tariffs.
  • The 32% tariff is less than what is needed to eliminate the trade deficit.
  • No tariffs will be applied if Indonesian companies build or manufacture products within the United States.
  • Should Indonesia raise its tariffs, an additional tariff equivalent to Indonesia's increase will be added to the U.S.'s 32% tariff.
  • Unsustainable trade deficits are a major threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):5/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:5/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:5/10