The Stable Genius Report

Stay informed on the latest Truth Social posts from Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump) without the doomscrolling. Consider it a public service for your mental health. (Why?)

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Summary:The post analyzes polling data on the foreign policy views of MAGA Republicans versus non-MAGA Republicans, specifically regarding support for U.S. military intervention if a NATO ally is attacked and if China attacks or blockades Taiwan.
Sentiment:Analytical
Key Claims:
  • MAGA Republicans show higher support than non-MAGA Republicans for U.S. military response if a NATO ally is attacked (69-71% vs. 61-63%).
  • A majority of MAGA Republicans (53% last year) held a favorable view of NATO.
  • If Trump decided to withdraw from NATO, 57% of MAGA Republicans would back the move, while 51% of non-MAGA Republicans would oppose it.
  • 56% of MAGA Republicans support increasing U.S. military presence in Eastern Europe to counter Russian aggression.
  • MAGA Republicans are more hawkish about China and Taiwan than non-MAGA Republicans.
  • 81% of MAGA supporters are concerned about a potential war between China and Taiwan (compared to 73% of non-MAGA Republicans).
  • 73% of MAGA Republicans support U.S. military action to defend Taiwan if China attacks or blockades it (compared to 62% of non-MAGA Republicans).
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):2/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:3/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10
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Summary:The post asserts that China is now able to continue purchasing oil from Iran and expresses a desire for China to also significantly increase its oil purchases from the U.S., with the author taking credit for this development.
Sentiment:Self-congratulatory / Advocating
Key Claims:
  • China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran.
  • The author hopes China will also purchase significant amounts of oil from the U.S.
  • The author claims responsibility for enabling these oil trade dynamics.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):3/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:2/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:3/10
Key Entities:
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Summary:The post claims U.S. wage growth has reached its highest level in 60 years.
Sentiment:Positive
Key Claims:
  • U.S. Wage Growth is the best in 60 years.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):1/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:0/10
Key Entities:
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Summary:The post denies U.S. involvement in a recent attack on Iran, warns of unprecedented military retaliation if Iran attacks the U.S., and simultaneously offers to facilitate a peace deal between Iran and Israel.
Sentiment:Ultimatum
Key Claims:
  • The U.S. was not involved in the attack on Iran.
  • Any attack by Iran on the U.S. will result in overwhelming military retaliation.
  • A deal can be easily brokered between Iran and Israel to end the conflict.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):6/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:7/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:8/10
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Summary:The post expresses strong confidence in the U.S. Army's future achievements, courage, and its role in defending both domestic soil and American interests globally.
Sentiment:Inspirational
Key Claims:
  • The U.S. Army will achieve significant glory in the future.
  • The U.S. Army possesses inexhaustible courage.
  • The U.S. Army will protect all U.S. territory.
  • The U.S. Army will defend America globally.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):0/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:0/10
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Summary:A Federal Appeals Court has ruled that the United States has the legal authority to use tariffs for protection, a decision presented as a significant victory for the U.S.
Sentiment:Positive
Key Claims:
  • A Federal Appeals Court has ruled on the legality of U.S. use of tariffs.
  • The ruling affirms the United States' ability to use tariffs for protection.
  • This decision is a significant win for the U.S.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):4/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:1/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:4/10