The Stable Genius Report

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Filtering by entity: China | Clear Filter
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Summary:Donald Trump expresses confidence that China's economic situation will improve, despite a difficult period for President Xi, stating both leaders want to avoid a depression for China and that the U.S.A. intends to provide assistance rather than cause harm.
Sentiment:Conciliatory
Key Claims:
  • China's economic situation will ultimately be fine.
  • President Xi experienced a difficult moment.
  • President Xi desires to prevent a depression for China.
  • Donald Trump also desires to prevent a depression for China.
  • The U.S.A. intends to help China.
  • The U.S.A. does not intend to hurt China.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):2/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:2/10
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Summary:China sent an extremely hostile letter announcing large-scale export controls on virtually all products, effective November 1st, 2025, which affects all countries. In response, the United States will impose a 100% tariff on China, in addition to existing tariffs, and implement export controls on critical software, also starting November 1st, 2025, or sooner.
Sentiment:Confrontational
Key Claims:
  • China has taken an extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade.
  • China sent an extremely hostile letter to the World.
  • China stated they would impose large-scale Export Controls on virtually every product they make, effective November 1st, 2025.
  • These Chinese export controls affect ALL Countries, without exception.
  • China's plan was devised years ago and is unheard of in International Trade.
  • China's action is a moral disgrace in dealing with other Nations.
  • The United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any current tariffs, starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner).
  • The United States will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software, also starting November 1st, 2025.
  • It is impossible to believe that China would have taken such an action, but they have.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):10/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:8/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:10/10
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Summary:China is reportedly initiating hostile trade actions by proposing export controls on rare earth elements and other production components to countries globally. These actions are described as unprecedented and designed to disrupt global markets, drawing anger from other nations. The U.S. views this as China leveraging a monopolistic position, prompting the U.S. President to declare that the U.S. will respond with financial countermeasures, including significantly increased tariffs on Chinese products, despite a previously positive relationship and a planned meeting with President Xi now being uncertain.
Sentiment:Confrontational
Key Claims:
  • China is exhibiting hostile behavior by sending letters to countries proposing export controls on rare earth elements and other production components.
  • These proposed export controls are unprecedented and would disrupt global markets and make life difficult for many countries.
  • Other countries have contacted the U.S. expressing anger over China's trade hostility.
  • China has been secretly amassing a monopoly position on certain elements, including 'Magnets.'
  • The U.S. possesses stronger and more extensive monopoly positions than China, which have not been utilized until now.
  • The U.S. President will be forced to financially counter China's move.
  • A massive increase of tariffs on Chinese products imported into the U.S. is one of the countermeasures under consideration.
  • The timing of China's action, coinciding with peace in the Middle East, is suspicious.
  • The relationship with China was good over the past six months, making this move surprising.
  • A planned meeting with President Xi at APEC in South Korea is now unlikely.
  • The U.S. countermeasure, though potentially painful, will ultimately be beneficial for the U.S.A.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):9/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:7/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:9/10
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Summary:Statements from several international entities, including Australia, China, New Zealand, the EU Commission, the European Council, France, and Germany, express support for a Middle East Peace Deal aimed at ending the conflict in Gaza and achieving lasting peace, with a specific mention of Donald Trump's commitment to the deal.
Sentiment:Triumphant
Key Claims:
  • Broad international support exists for a Middle East Peace Deal.
  • The deal aims to end the war in Gaza.
  • Hamas is expected to lay down its arms and release all remaining hostages.
  • Donald Trump's commitment to the peace deal is acknowledged and welcomed by international bodies.
  • A two-state solution is identified as a viable path to lasting peace in the Middle East.
  • The deal represents a unique opportunity to resolve the conflict.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):5/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:1/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:6/10
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Summary:Soybean farmers are facing difficulties because China is not purchasing their products for negotiation reasons. The author states that tariff revenue will be used to support farmers. The author claims President Biden failed to enforce a prior agreement with China regarding the purchase of U.S. farm products, including soybeans. The author expresses confidence that the situation will resolve positively and announces an upcoming meeting with President Xi in four weeks, where soybeans will be a primary topic of discussion, with the aim to restore the prominence of soybeans and other row crops.
Sentiment:Campaigning
Key Claims:
  • Soybean farmers are currently experiencing financial hardship due to China's strategic decision to withhold purchases for negotiation purposes.
  • A portion of the revenue generated from tariffs will be allocated to assist farmers.
  • The author commits to never failing the farmers.
  • President Joe Biden did not uphold a previous agreement with China, which stipulated the purchase of billions of dollars of U.S. farm products, specifically soybeans.
  • The current situation is expected to resolve favorably.
  • Farmers are considered patriots.
  • A meeting with President Xi of China is scheduled to occur in four weeks, with soybeans being a central focus of the discussions.
  • The objective is to restore the significance and success of soybeans and other row crops.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):4/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:1/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:3/10
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Summary:An intention to impose substantial tariffs on any country that does not manufacture its furniture in the United States, with the stated goal of revitalizing North Carolina's furniture business.
Sentiment:Campaigning
Key Claims:
  • North Carolina's furniture business has been completely lost to China and other countries.
  • Substantial tariffs will be imposed on any country that does not make its furniture in the United States.
  • The imposition of these tariffs is intended to make North Carolina great again.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):7/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:2/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:7/10
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Summary:A very productive call was completed with President Xi of China, where progress was made on trade, fentanyl issues, the need to end the Russia-Ukraine War, and the approval of the TikTok Deal. Agreements were also made for future meetings at the APEC Summit in South Korea, a visit to China early next year, and President Xi's visit to the United States at an appropriate time. The TikTok approval is appreciated, and both leaders look forward to the APEC meeting.
Sentiment:Productive Diplomacy
Key Claims:
  • A very productive call was completed with President Xi.
  • Progress was made on trade.
  • Progress was made on fentanyl issues.
  • The need to bring the War between Russia and Ukraine to an end was discussed.
  • The approval of the TikTok Deal was discussed.
  • An agreement was made to meet with President Xi at the APEC Summit in South Korea.
  • An agreement was made for a visit to China in the early part of next year.
  • An agreement was made for President Xi to come to the United States at an appropriate time.
  • The TikTok approval is appreciated.
  • Both leaders look forward to meeting at APEC.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):4/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:1/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:4/10
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Summary:A successful trade meeting occurred in Europe between the United States and China, culminating in a deal concerning a company popular among young people. President Trump will speak with President Xi on Friday, emphasizing the strong relationship between the two nations.
Sentiment:Triumphant
Key Claims:
  • A significant trade meeting between the U.S. and China in Europe was highly successful.
  • A deal was reached regarding a 'certain' company that young people in the U.S. desired to save.
  • The deal will make young people in the U.S. very happy.
  • President Trump will speak with President Xi on Friday.
  • The relationship between the U.S. and China remains very strong.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):5/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:6/10
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Summary:Recommends transitioning corporate financial reporting from a quarterly to a semi-annual basis, subject to SEC approval, to reduce costs and enable a longer-term management focus, contrasting the current U.S. approach with China's long-term strategic view.
Sentiment:Policy-Advocating
Key Claims:
  • Companies and corporations should shift from quarterly to semi-annual financial reporting.
  • Changing reporting frequency to semi-annually will result in cost savings.
  • Managers will be able to focus more effectively on company operations with semi-annual reporting.
  • China maintains a 50 to 100-year perspective on company management.
  • The current quarterly reporting system in the U.S. is detrimental, especially when contrasted with China's long-term management view.
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):4/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:3/10
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Summary:Advocates for transitioning from quarterly to semi-annual corporate reporting, contingent on SEC approval, asserting this change would reduce costs and enhance managerial focus by enabling a longer-term perspective, contrasting with China's reported long-term view.
Sentiment:Advocating
Key Claims:
  • Companies and Corporations should report on a six-month basis instead of quarterly, subject to SEC Approval.
  • This change will save money.
  • This change will allow managers to focus on properly running their companies.
  • China has a 50 to 100 year view on management of a company.
  • Running companies on a quarterly basis is 'Not good!!!'
Potential Market Impact (S&P 500):6/10
Potential Geopolitical Risk:0/10
Potential Global Cross-Asset Impact:6/10